Wonkbook: Boehner failed. Now what?
By Ezra Klein
WashPost
The lengths John Boehner went to ensure his bill failed in the Senate rather than the House were impressive, but ultimately, insufficient. Quotes from 'The Town' didn't work. Endorsements from major conservative outlets didn't work. Arm-twisting didn't work. The bill will likely be revised today in order to pass, but the damage is done. The legislation, which never had a chance in Harry Reid's Senate, was meant to send a message: Republicans are united. They are willing to sacrifice and compromise to raise the debt ceiling. Turns out they're not.
Anyone who says they know exactly what happens next is lying. One popular theory is that Boehner's failure moves the final bill somewhat to the left. It proves that any compromise will need a large number of Democratic votes, and that means Boehner needs to agree to the sort of bill that can pick up a large number of Democratic votes.
Another possibility is that Boehner pulls back and moves to his right. His speakership is undoubtedly endangered, and it's possible he will choose to shore up his flank rather than raise the debt ceiling. That would be dangerous for the economy, but it is not, given last night's humiliation, unthinkable.
Perhaps the primary wild card is what happens when the market opens today. If Wall Street assesses this as yet another day of Washington nonsense en route to an inevitable deal, then congressional leaders will find they have a bit more time to dawdle and negotiate. If the market decides that Boehner's inability to control his caucus is evidence that things really are different this time, it could drop precipitously. If that happens, the leadership of both parties might dispense with the legislation meant to message and figure out how to pass the legislation meant to lift the debt ceiling. It would be about time.
(More here.)
WashPost
The lengths John Boehner went to ensure his bill failed in the Senate rather than the House were impressive, but ultimately, insufficient. Quotes from 'The Town' didn't work. Endorsements from major conservative outlets didn't work. Arm-twisting didn't work. The bill will likely be revised today in order to pass, but the damage is done. The legislation, which never had a chance in Harry Reid's Senate, was meant to send a message: Republicans are united. They are willing to sacrifice and compromise to raise the debt ceiling. Turns out they're not.
Anyone who says they know exactly what happens next is lying. One popular theory is that Boehner's failure moves the final bill somewhat to the left. It proves that any compromise will need a large number of Democratic votes, and that means Boehner needs to agree to the sort of bill that can pick up a large number of Democratic votes.
Another possibility is that Boehner pulls back and moves to his right. His speakership is undoubtedly endangered, and it's possible he will choose to shore up his flank rather than raise the debt ceiling. That would be dangerous for the economy, but it is not, given last night's humiliation, unthinkable.
Perhaps the primary wild card is what happens when the market opens today. If Wall Street assesses this as yet another day of Washington nonsense en route to an inevitable deal, then congressional leaders will find they have a bit more time to dawdle and negotiate. If the market decides that Boehner's inability to control his caucus is evidence that things really are different this time, it could drop precipitously. If that happens, the leadership of both parties might dispense with the legislation meant to message and figure out how to pass the legislation meant to lift the debt ceiling. It would be about time.
(More here.)
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