A Recovery That Repeats Its Painful Precedents

By BINYAMIN APPELBAUM
NYT

WASHINGTON

Earlier this year, as the economy began to sputter, Ben S. Bernanke, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, was asked about the historical evidence that recoveries from financial crises were always painfully slow.

Mr. Bernanke responded that the pattern was clear but the reasons were not. He suggested that a nation that made the right choices could do better. History is not destiny.

It seems increasingly unlikely that the United States will prove his point. The government is expected to report Friday that the economy expanded at a rate below 2 percent in the first half of the year — well below the nation’s long-term average and too slowly to recover the losses sustained during the recession.

Twenty-five million Americans still could not find full-time jobs last month. And hopes for the second half of the year are under the cloud of a political crisis that has cast doubt on the government’s willingness to pay its bills.

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