On Minnesota Politics, Groundhog Day Edition

If the woodchuck sees its shadow, are there 6 more weeks of campaigning?

by Leigh Pomeroy

People in the rest of the country, maybe even in the rest of the world, must think Minnesotans are truly schizophrenic. That's because they seem not to be able to decide whether they're conservative or liberal.

The Politicos in Washington Who Know It All — let's call them "pwonkies" — keep calling this once liberal bastion a "tossup state." That's cuz in 2002 a very popular guy named Paul Wellstone died in an airplane crash — and yes, a good number in the state still think it was NOT an accident — a former Vice President was hastily recruited to take his place on the ballot, a bunch of really excited DFLers (Minnesota-type Democrats) turned the memorial into a political event, and in reaction, a bunch of disgusted voters cast their ballots for Republican candidates. Simple.

Well, pwonkies, that was 4+ years ago, and the DFLers have returned for the most part to their original strength.

Yet that doesn't mean that Minnesota Republicans are moribund. Even though many of them voted for DFL candidates in the last election out of disgust for their own party, they're still Republican at heart. Sometimes in a given area there's even enough of them to comfortably swing an election, as we have seen in CD 2 with Jon Kline and CD 6 with Michele Bachmann.

(CD 3 doesn't count, as Jim Ramstad, a RINO, could run under any party banner and still win, much like Collin Peterson over in CD 7, a DINO, could do the same.)

What's great about Minnesota Republicans in leadership roles, though, is that they are a colorful lot. We know, for example, that Kline is a guy who likes war and big business, and that Bachmann wants a whole bunch of roads for her district without forcing taxpayers to pay for 'em. She also likes war, doesn't like gays and thinks the President is a pretty neat guy.

In short, these two are politicians the voters can pin down. No wishy-washiness, no ambiguity — voters know where they stand. The difference between them, however, is that Mr. Kline brings a Darth Vader-like seriousness to the scene while Mrs. Bachmann provides the role of ... well ... C-3PO.

Then there are Governor Tim Pawlenty and Sen. Norm Coleman, both beneficiaries of that ill-fated (for the DFL) 2002 election. Unlike Kline and Bachmann, they float with the political tide. Pawlenty survived the '04 election because (a) he looks good, (b) he smiles a lot, and (c) many DFLers couldn't decide between voting for their own candidate, the dour Mike Hatch, or the Independence Party candidate, Peter Hutchinson, whose views they most aligned with. Coleman, being a Senator, hasn't had to face the voters since the fates delivered him his victory in '02.

So, my pwonkie friends in Washington, this is why Minnesota is still "purple," at least in your myopic, ego-driven vision.

In actuality?

There are some heavy red spots and some heavy blue spots. The heavy reds are mainly driven by religious and social fundamentalists, and while their numbers are waning their commitment is to be admired. Unfortunately for Republican candidates in the last election, Republican voters were let down by the Man in the White House and his minions in government, most of whom are nodding sycophants, though some are puppeteers deserving of Emmys were their calling Sesame Street instead of Pennsylvania Avenue. Hence, the red spots have been shrinking since '02.

The blue spots, on the other hand, are growing like an aggressive cancer. Minneapolis and St. Paul have long since fallen, as has Duluth, Minnesota's second most populous city. Mankato fell about 10 years ago and Rochester officially succumbed in this past election. The only large urban bastion left is St. Cloud, which, with its significant university population, is quite vulnerable to becoming infected with the blue disease.

What would it take? First, the community would have to tire of being a national laughing stock because its congressional representative is a female version of C-3PO. Second, it would have to field an attractive DFL candidate whose campaign does not self-destruct because of bad management.

So, pwonkies, if you think you know Minnesota, don't be too sure of yourselves. In fact, you're usually behind the times, working from historical data and statistical trends rather than talking with the folks on the ground. And that's not good enough.

If a groundhog surfaces in Crow Wing, the geographical center of Minnesota, on February 2nd and sees his shadow, does it mean the state will see six more weeks of winter? Or does it mean he's come out of his burrow simply to have a good woodchuckle at Minnesota's political follies?