Robert Novak on Minnesota Politics

From Evans-Novak Political Report, week of February 1, 2007:

Senate 2008

Liberal comedian Al Franken has announced that his radio show will end on February 14, and his announcement hints that he will follow up on his long-stated desire to run against Sen. Norm Coleman (R) next year.

Democrats in Minnesota are on a roll right now after two successful state-level elections. They failed to unseat Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), but they gained several seats in the state legislature in both 2004 and 2006, in addition to the U.S. House seat of Rep. Gil Gutknecht (R-Minn.).

Franken is the Republicans' favorite candidate. Rep. Betty McCollum (D), also talked about for the race, is comfortable in the House majority with her seat on the powerful Appropriations Committee. She would be considered weak outside the Minneapolis/St. Paul area, but Franken would probably be even weaker.

Rep. Tim Walz (D) gets an occasional mention for the race despite being a freshman, but House Democrats have invested heavily in him by giving him seats on the Agriculture, Transportation and Veterans' Affairs committees. They also gave him a recent opportunity to deliver the Democratic response to the President's weekly radio address, a clear sign that they hope he can hold on to the Republican-leaning district he just won (see below).

The bad news for Coleman -- perhaps the most endangered incumbent senator in 2008 -- is that even Franken can be competitive in this "purple" state that appears to be reverting to blue. Minnesota Republicans tremble as they ask themselves whether the progress they had been making in Minnesota through 2004 has been truly reversed, or whether it was just a hiccup from a bad 2006 cycle.

House 2008

Minnesota-1: The decision by Rep. Gil Gutknecht to sell his well-located Capitol Hill condo and leave everything behind -- including all of his furniture and even his Select Comfort bed -- gives a strong impression that he will not be running to get his seat back any time soon. Democrat Tim Walz defeated Gutknecht by a wide margin in one of the big surprise upsets of 2006.

The first Republican to publicly express interest is Mark Meyer, chairman of the Lake Crystal school board. Former state Senate Minority Leader Dick Day (R) is reportedly considering the race as well, but so far this does not seem to have risen above the level of barroom chatter.