Iraq at Risk of Further Strife, Intelligence Report Warns
By Karen DeYoung and Walter Pincus
Washington Post
A long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, presented to President Bush by the intelligence community yesterday, outlines an increasingly perilous situation in which the United States has little control and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration, according to sources familiar with the document.
In a discussion of whether Iraq has reached a state of civil war, the 90-page classified NIE comes to no conclusion and holds out prospects of improvement. But it couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests and fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption.
The document emphasizes that although al-Qaeda activities in Iraq remain a problem, they have been surpassed by Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals. Iran, which the administration has charged with supplying and directing Iraqi extremists, is mentioned but is not a focus.
Completion of the estimate, which projects events in Iraq over the next 18 months, comes amid intensifying debate and skepticism on Capitol Hill about the administration's war policy. In a series of contentious hearings over the past two weeks, legislators have sharply questioned Bush's new plan for the deployment of 21,500 additional U.S. troops and the administration's dependence on the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
(Continued here.)
Washington Post
A long-awaited National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq, presented to President Bush by the intelligence community yesterday, outlines an increasingly perilous situation in which the United States has little control and there is a strong possibility of further deterioration, according to sources familiar with the document.
In a discussion of whether Iraq has reached a state of civil war, the 90-page classified NIE comes to no conclusion and holds out prospects of improvement. But it couches glimmers of optimism in deep uncertainty about whether the Iraqi leaders will be able to transcend sectarian interests and fight against extremists, establish effective national institutions and end rampant corruption.
The document emphasizes that although al-Qaeda activities in Iraq remain a problem, they have been surpassed by Iraqi-on-Iraqi violence as the primary source of conflict and the most immediate threat to U.S. goals. Iran, which the administration has charged with supplying and directing Iraqi extremists, is mentioned but is not a focus.
Completion of the estimate, which projects events in Iraq over the next 18 months, comes amid intensifying debate and skepticism on Capitol Hill about the administration's war policy. In a series of contentious hearings over the past two weeks, legislators have sharply questioned Bush's new plan for the deployment of 21,500 additional U.S. troops and the administration's dependence on the government of Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki.
(Continued here.)
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2 Comments:
Have you read http://www.odni.gov/press_releases/20070202_release.pdf ? It was released today.
First a question and then a comment.
Will all Congressmen and Senators have access to the full 90+ page report ? Or will only select members – such as Intelligence Committee members ? If it is all, what is your guess as to how many will actually read it ?
The last comment concerning Anarchic Fragmentation of Power by which more power is given to local groups suggests that the Biden plan would fail. Considering how problems seem to ignite every month in Basra, this concern is a virtual certainty.
I note the absence of discussion of why the Iraqi Parliament is failing to address Constitutional questions – sharing oil revenues, Kurdish pseudo-independence, women’s rights, etc.
Good catch, finding the press release.
The question of access is closely related to the classification level of the document. If the full version is secret or below, the document can be schlepped around to members who request it. Top Secret or above, and members have to travel to one of the secure vaults, and to have clearance access to those vaults.
Intelligence Cmte members will all have access to those vaults, but my recollection is that not all members have TS access.
Given the importance of the issue, I suspect at least half of the members will read some version of the NIE, even if it is only the unclas Key Judgments you found. Under normal circumstances, only a handful of members would bother...witness the very few who read the rush-job NIE back in the fall of 2002.
On the big issues, if I'm not mistaken, sharing of oil revenue has been addressed even in the constitution. Women's rights are less important to virtually all participants. The Kurdish situation is very delicate, so probably nobody wants to open Pandora's box. As you can see in another selection from the LATimes, the Kurds are expelling Sunnis from Kirkuk, which they view as a Kurdish city, and essential to the economic viability of a Kurdish state.
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