Gutknecht woes continue; could there be a big change in November?
There is much discussion among those following the 1st Congressional District race about the recent elevation of the contest from #46 to #39 in the National Journal as of August 16. (The Wetterling-Bachmann race in the 6th is holding steady at #23.) Interestingly, this ranking was done before the mainstream media (MSM) caught onto the Gutknecht Wikipedia flap, which has been mentioned in/on at least two dozen MSM venues from San Luis Obispo, CA, to Charlotte, NC.
The ranking was done before the MSM more recently picked up on the trouble brewing in Mr. Gutknecht's hometown of Rochester over the proposed expansion of the DM&E railroad and the sweetheart pork-barrel loan it's applying for courtesy of the railroad's former lobbyist, Sen. John Thune of South Dakota.
This probably means that the Walz-Gutknecht race will not stop its upward climb at #39.
Interestingly enough, looking at the top 50 races on the National Journal website, 39 are in current Republican-held districts, while 11 are in Democratic districts. Assuming half in each change hands, conservatively 19 Republican districts will go Democrat and 5 Democrat districts will go Republican, for a net gain of 14 seats for the Democrats among the top 50. Given that the likelihood of change in the remaining seats is very low, this would translate to a net 15-seat gain for the Democrats in the fall election.
Currently in the House of Representatives there are 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats, 1 Independent and 2 vacancies (House Clerk). A change of 14 would mean 218 Republicans and 216 Democrats, assuming the vacancies split and the independent, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, remains in office, which seems likely.
(Correction from john s.: "Sanders won't be back in the House; he's running for Senate...." The Vermont House race is now neck and neck and is #27 on the National Journal's list. According to the above formula, the result of this race yields a 219-216 differential in the House if the Republican wins, 218-217 if the Democrat wins.)
An interesting election coming up in November? As we say in Minnesota, "You betcha!"
The ranking was done before the MSM more recently picked up on the trouble brewing in Mr. Gutknecht's hometown of Rochester over the proposed expansion of the DM&E railroad and the sweetheart pork-barrel loan it's applying for courtesy of the railroad's former lobbyist, Sen. John Thune of South Dakota.
This probably means that the Walz-Gutknecht race will not stop its upward climb at #39.
Interestingly enough, looking at the top 50 races on the National Journal website, 39 are in current Republican-held districts, while 11 are in Democratic districts. Assuming half in each change hands, conservatively 19 Republican districts will go Democrat and 5 Democrat districts will go Republican, for a net gain of 14 seats for the Democrats among the top 50. Given that the likelihood of change in the remaining seats is very low, this would translate to a net 15-seat gain for the Democrats in the fall election.
Currently in the House of Representatives there are 231 Republicans, 201 Democrats, 1 Independent and 2 vacancies (House Clerk). A change of 14 would mean 218 Republicans and 216 Democrats, assuming the vacancies split and the independent, Bernie Sanders of Vermont, remains in office, which seems likely.
(Correction from john s.: "Sanders won't be back in the House; he's running for Senate...." The Vermont House race is now neck and neck and is #27 on the National Journal's list. According to the above formula, the result of this race yields a 219-216 differential in the House if the Republican wins, 218-217 if the Democrat wins.)
An interesting election coming up in November? As we say in Minnesota, "You betcha!"
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1 Comments:
Sanders won't be back in the House; he's running for Senate and is polling well ahead of the Republicans competing to get hosed.
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