Friday, February 27, 2015

Stratfor: The EU will never return to its previous unity

From the Budapest Beacon, Benjamin Novak

“The European Union will never return to its previous unity, and if it survives it will operate in a more limited and fragmented way in the next decade,” Stratfor predicts. “We do not expect the free trade zone to continue to operate without increasing protectionism. We expect Germany to suffer severe economic reversals in the next decade and Poland to increase its regional power as a result,” the report continues.

The current conflict in Ukraine will continue to remain a centeriece of the international system in coming years, and the Russian Federation will not be able to exist in its current form in coming years.

“[Russia’s] overwhelming dependence on energy exports and the unreliability of expectations on pricing make it impossible for Moscow to sustain its institutional relations across the wide swathe of the Russian Federation,” writes Stratfor.

The geopolitical intelligence and advisory firm expects Moscow’s authority to “weaken substantially, leading to the formal and informal fragmentation of Russia. The security of Russia’s nuclear arsenal will become a prime concern as this process accelerates later in the decade.”

Europe’s fundamental problem isn’t the eurozone but the free trade zone.

(Continued here. Referenced in this article: Decade Forecast: 2015-2025, Stratfor.com; 26 February 2015.)

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