Oil Shocks Ahead? Probably Not
CLIFFORD KRAUSS, NYT
HOUSTON — OVER the last few months, as an Egyptian government fell in a coup, the United States considered an attack on Syria and disgruntled Libyan terminal guards blocked oil exports, the only predictable news was the rise in oil prices to levels not seen in more than two years.
It all seemed distressingly similar to previous oil shocks. That is, until the higher prices suddenly retreated, along with President Obama’s plans to retaliate for Syria’s apparent use of chemical weapons.
What is the lesson of the summer minispike? Are we poised to return to $145-a-barrel oil and $4.50-a-gallon gasoline? The answer from most energy experts is probably not, because the fundamental global oil demand and supply equation has changed so drastically over the last three years.
Even before the collapse of plans to attack Syria and the new overtures of Iran to improve relations with the West, the financial company Raymond James published a report forecasting a lowering of oil prices from $109 in 2013 to $95 in 2014 and $90 in 2015. Some analysts are predicting even lower prices, and not only because of the frenzy of shale drilling in the United States and rapid oil sands development in Canada.
(More here.)
HOUSTON — OVER the last few months, as an Egyptian government fell in a coup, the United States considered an attack on Syria and disgruntled Libyan terminal guards blocked oil exports, the only predictable news was the rise in oil prices to levels not seen in more than two years.
It all seemed distressingly similar to previous oil shocks. That is, until the higher prices suddenly retreated, along with President Obama’s plans to retaliate for Syria’s apparent use of chemical weapons.
What is the lesson of the summer minispike? Are we poised to return to $145-a-barrel oil and $4.50-a-gallon gasoline? The answer from most energy experts is probably not, because the fundamental global oil demand and supply equation has changed so drastically over the last three years.
Even before the collapse of plans to attack Syria and the new overtures of Iran to improve relations with the West, the financial company Raymond James published a report forecasting a lowering of oil prices from $109 in 2013 to $95 in 2014 and $90 in 2015. Some analysts are predicting even lower prices, and not only because of the frenzy of shale drilling in the United States and rapid oil sands development in Canada.
(More here.)
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