The Midterms: Sam Wang Weighs In

Paul Krugman, NYT

My Princeton colleague Sam Wang, one of the best poll aggregators out there — and one of the people who, if you were reading him, made you smarter than any of Romney’s advisors — takes on the PPP poll of selected Congressional districts. His conclusion:

If the election were held today, Democrats would pick up around 30 seats, giving them control of the chamber. I do not expect this to happen. Many things will happen in the coming 12 months, and the current crisis might be a distant memory. But at this point I do expect Democrats to pick up seats next year, an exception to the midterm rule.

Wang does this with “swingometrics.” We know that Republicans have a structural advantage in the House: Partly through gerrymandering, partly through sheer accident, Democratic voters (especially African-Americans) are heavily concentrated in a relatively small number of districts, so that even when Democrats win more votes overall — as they did last year — a GOP majority is likely. Wang estimates that a swing toward Democrats of 6 percent would be needed for them to retake the House. It don’t mean a thing if they don’t get that swing (sorry, had to put that in.)

(More here.)