A Pause, Not an End, to Warming
By RICHARD A. MULLER, NYT
BERKELEY, Calif. — THE global warming crowd has a problem. For all of its warnings, and despite a steady escalation of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, the planet’s average surface temperature has remained pretty much the same for the last 15 years.
As you might guess, skeptics of warming were in full attack mode as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gathered in Sweden this week to approve its latest findings about our warming planet. The skeptics argue that this recent plateau illustrates what they always knew — that complex global climate models have no predictive capability and that, therefore, there is no proof of global warming, human-caused or not.
Greenhouse theorists appear to be on the defensive as they offer different explanations for the letup — that deep ocean water may be draining some warmth from the atmosphere, that increases in high-altitude water vapor may be responsible or that numerous small volcanic eruptions are the cause.
My analysis is different. Berkeley Earth, a team of scientists I helped establish, found that the average land temperature had risen 1.5 degrees Celsius over the past 250 years. Solar variability didn’t match the pattern; greenhouse gases did.
(More here.)
BERKELEY, Calif. — THE global warming crowd has a problem. For all of its warnings, and despite a steady escalation of greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, the planet’s average surface temperature has remained pretty much the same for the last 15 years.
As you might guess, skeptics of warming were in full attack mode as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gathered in Sweden this week to approve its latest findings about our warming planet. The skeptics argue that this recent plateau illustrates what they always knew — that complex global climate models have no predictive capability and that, therefore, there is no proof of global warming, human-caused or not.
Greenhouse theorists appear to be on the defensive as they offer different explanations for the letup — that deep ocean water may be draining some warmth from the atmosphere, that increases in high-altitude water vapor may be responsible or that numerous small volcanic eruptions are the cause.
My analysis is different. Berkeley Earth, a team of scientists I helped establish, found that the average land temperature had risen 1.5 degrees Celsius over the past 250 years. Solar variability didn’t match the pattern; greenhouse gases did.
(More here.)
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