Default Notes
Paul Krugman, NYT
Add me to the chorus of those puzzled by the lack of market alarm over the possibility of U.S. default, induced by failure to raise the debt ceiling. The best story I’ve heard came from a government official who put it something like this: “Business types come to Washington, and they talk to Boehner, or Paul Ryan, or Eric Cantor – all of whom are very hard line, but not insane. So they go home reassured. What they don’t realize is that those guys aren’t in control, and that they’re running scared of a large faction of the party that is indeed insane.”
That makes sense to me; if most political reporters are still in denial over the real state of affairs, one can imagine that businesspeople are having an even harder time realizing the extent to which the inmates have taken over the asylum.
But suppose that markets were giving the possibility of default the attention it deserves; how should they be reacting? That’s not actually all that obvious, at least as far as interest rates are concerned.
What everyone stresses is that U.S. government debt, until now regarded as the ultimate safe asset, suddenly becomes not so safe. That could drive up short-term interest rates, at least a bit, because T-bills could start to trade at a discount relative to cash. Although maybe not. Is there a reason the Fed can’t serve as bond buyer of last resort, standing ready to buy T-bills at par, so they remain fully liquid?
(More here.)
Add me to the chorus of those puzzled by the lack of market alarm over the possibility of U.S. default, induced by failure to raise the debt ceiling. The best story I’ve heard came from a government official who put it something like this: “Business types come to Washington, and they talk to Boehner, or Paul Ryan, or Eric Cantor – all of whom are very hard line, but not insane. So they go home reassured. What they don’t realize is that those guys aren’t in control, and that they’re running scared of a large faction of the party that is indeed insane.”
That makes sense to me; if most political reporters are still in denial over the real state of affairs, one can imagine that businesspeople are having an even harder time realizing the extent to which the inmates have taken over the asylum.
But suppose that markets were giving the possibility of default the attention it deserves; how should they be reacting? That’s not actually all that obvious, at least as far as interest rates are concerned.
What everyone stresses is that U.S. government debt, until now regarded as the ultimate safe asset, suddenly becomes not so safe. That could drive up short-term interest rates, at least a bit, because T-bills could start to trade at a discount relative to cash. Although maybe not. Is there a reason the Fed can’t serve as bond buyer of last resort, standing ready to buy T-bills at par, so they remain fully liquid?
(More here.)
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