Gallup Presidential Poll: How Did Brand-Name Firm Blow Election?
HuffPost, Posted: 03/08/2013 8:16 am EST | Updated: 03/08/2013 8:50 am EST
WASHINGTON -- Gallup, which has long touted itself as the most trusted survey brand in the world, is facing a crisis. If Barack Obama's reelection in November was widely considered a win for data crunchers, who had predicted the president's victory in the face of skeptical pundits, it was a black mark for Gallup, whose polls leading up to Election Day had given the edge to Republican nominee Mitt Romney.
Obama prevailed in the national popular vote by a nearly 4 percentage point margin. Gallup's final pre-election poll, however, showed Romney leading Obama 49 to 48 percent. And the firm's tracking surveys conducted earlier in October found Romney ahead by bigger margins, results that were consistently the most favorable to Romney among the national polls.
Since the election, the Gallup Poll's editor-in-chief, Frank Newport, has at times downplayed the significance of his firm's shortcomings. At a panel in November, he characterized Gallup's final pre-election poll as "in the range of where it ended up" and "within a point or two" of the final forecasts of other polls. But in late January, he announced that the company was conducting a "comprehensive review" of its polling methods.
There is a lot at stake in this review, which is being assisted by University of Michigan political scientist and highly respected survey methodologist Michael Traugott. Polling is a competitive business, and Gallup's value as a brand is tied directly to the accuracy of its results.
(More here.)
WASHINGTON -- Gallup, which has long touted itself as the most trusted survey brand in the world, is facing a crisis. If Barack Obama's reelection in November was widely considered a win for data crunchers, who had predicted the president's victory in the face of skeptical pundits, it was a black mark for Gallup, whose polls leading up to Election Day had given the edge to Republican nominee Mitt Romney.
Obama prevailed in the national popular vote by a nearly 4 percentage point margin. Gallup's final pre-election poll, however, showed Romney leading Obama 49 to 48 percent. And the firm's tracking surveys conducted earlier in October found Romney ahead by bigger margins, results that were consistently the most favorable to Romney among the national polls.
Since the election, the Gallup Poll's editor-in-chief, Frank Newport, has at times downplayed the significance of his firm's shortcomings. At a panel in November, he characterized Gallup's final pre-election poll as "in the range of where it ended up" and "within a point or two" of the final forecasts of other polls. But in late January, he announced that the company was conducting a "comprehensive review" of its polling methods.
There is a lot at stake in this review, which is being assisted by University of Michigan political scientist and highly respected survey methodologist Michael Traugott. Polling is a competitive business, and Gallup's value as a brand is tied directly to the accuracy of its results.
(More here.)
Powered by Blogger
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
<< Home