Wonkbook: What matters -- and what doesn't -- in 2012

By Ezra Klein,
WashPost
Published: January 13

Last night, I was asked to give a speech on the 2012 election. It ended up being a useful exercise -- an opportunity to step back from the day-to-day crush of ministories and gaffes and think more broadly about what matters, and what doesn't really matter, in 2012.

Supporters of Republican presidential candidate and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney react to predictions that he has won the "first in the nation" primary during a watch party at Southern New Hampshire University Jan. 10.
Let's start by talking a bit about what won't matter, or at least what won't matter as much as the coverage of it will imply.

- The South Carolina primary: One of two things will happen in South Carolina. Mitt Romney will win the primary and go on to capture the Republican nomination or Mitt Romney will lose the primary and go on to capture the Republican nomination. Barring the proverbial dead girl or live boy, those are the only realistic options.

- The campaign: President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are both credible, seemingly decent men who will lead competent, professional campaigns. The differences in effectiveness between the two campaigns is likely to be marginal. Anyone who wants to vote for one of them, or against the other, will have more than enough excuse to do so. For all the coverage campaign strategies will receive, it is very unlikely that one campaign will absolutely stomp the other.

(More here.)