Shadowy Figure: Al Qaeda's Size Is Hard to Measure
By CARL BIALIK
WSJ
Ten years after al Qaeda carried out the Sept. 11 attacks on the U.S., the terrorist network's ranks have been under persistent assault. Yet it remains a credible threat, security analysts say, as demonstrated by intelligence suggesting al Qaeda militants were planning attacks around this weekend's anniversary.
The U.S. government has pursued and killed key members, notably leader Osama bin Laden. But terrorism experts can't even agree on how to measure the group, let alone whether it has been growing.
Some even say the group's size is irrelevant.
"Terrorism is not a numbers game," says Bruce Hoffman, director of Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies. "That is the point of terrorism: A small number of dedicated, well-trained, and highly motivated individuals can have a disproportionate impact on any society's sense of security and profoundly affect government policies." He and other scholars cited the Madrid train bombers in 2004 and the perpetrator of the Norwegian massacre in July as examples of small groups, or lone operatives, who proved deadly.
(More here.)
WSJ
Ten years after al Qaeda carried out the Sept. 11 attacks on the U.S., the terrorist network's ranks have been under persistent assault. Yet it remains a credible threat, security analysts say, as demonstrated by intelligence suggesting al Qaeda militants were planning attacks around this weekend's anniversary.
The U.S. government has pursued and killed key members, notably leader Osama bin Laden. But terrorism experts can't even agree on how to measure the group, let alone whether it has been growing.
Some even say the group's size is irrelevant.
"Terrorism is not a numbers game," says Bruce Hoffman, director of Georgetown University's Center for Peace and Security Studies. "That is the point of terrorism: A small number of dedicated, well-trained, and highly motivated individuals can have a disproportionate impact on any society's sense of security and profoundly affect government policies." He and other scholars cited the Madrid train bombers in 2004 and the perpetrator of the Norwegian massacre in July as examples of small groups, or lone operatives, who proved deadly.
(More here.)
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