The economics of the future: Why assumptions must change — A primer

(LP note: The author is just one of many voices who have been pointing out that growth as a driver of economic prosperity cannot continue. There are many reasons why but the most notable are [1] a finite planet, [2] a stabilized population by 2050, [3] finite mineral resources, [4] finite oil, [5] finite arable land, and [6] finite fresh water. While some of these limitations can be "solved" by technology, most notably [5] and [6], the first four will be much more difficult to overcome. This excellent presentation is a primer on these challenges, dealing mostly with oil.)

The End of Growth: Peak Oil, Recessions and the End of the Fossil Fuel Economy

Written by Gail Tverberg
Wednesday, 17 August 2011

The issues we are confronted with today seem to be a subset of the issues foretold in the book Limits to Growth back in 1972. At some point, the economy cannot continue to grow as rapidly as it did in the past. It appears to me that the most immediate limit we are hitting today is inadequate low-priced oil, but there are other limits lurking not far away–inadequate fresh water and excessive pollution, for example. When the economy cannot grow as fast, or actually starts declining, recession sets in. Governments start having debt problems. Financial markets start behaving strangely.

This issue is a difficult one to talk about, because there really is no good solution. I have talked to a couple of groups recently (one a church group; one a peak oil group), about this issue. This is a copy of the presentation I used (Bumping up against the Growth Ceiling (PDF) or Bumping up against the Growth Ceiling (PowerPoint)). In this post, I will discuss my presentation.

(Article here.)