Measuring the Impact of N.C.A.A. Injuries

By NATE SILVER
NYT

N.C.A.A. tournament games between the No. 1 seed and the No. 16 seed aren’t normally worth watching. No men’s 16th seed has ever beaten a No. 1, and that doesn’t figure to change this year.

But when Duke plays Hampton on Friday afternoon, the game will be worth keeping an eye on for something other than the final score: whether Duke’s spectacular freshman point guard, Kyrie Irving, gets on the floor.

The 6-foot-2 Irving, the potential first overall choice in the N.B.A. draft, has not played since Dec. 4, when he injured his right big toe against Butler. Recent reports, however, are optimistic: Irving is listed as probable for Friday’s game, and will be even more likely to play if Duke advances in the tournament.

If Irving can play even at half-strength, Duke may well be the favorite to win the tournament. Conversely, if he were ruled out of action, the Blue Devils’ chances of cutting down the nets in Houston might be nearly cut in half.

(More here.)