Does Tim Pawlenty have a national future?

(LP note: The commentary below was written by Minnesota Central, an independent political observer living in rural Minnesota, in response to a simple question asked by a friend who lives in Chicago. We thought it an insightful analysis.)

Does Pawlenty have a national future?

Pawlenty definitely has a national future largely due to the lack of strong, experienced and vetted Republican candidates. The Huckabee/Palin crowd has to determine their choice. (And will Palin/Huckabee run or stay in a money-making-media role?) Pawlenty will have to fight to get noticed, and based on the “evolution” of Pawlenty, that is occurring.

And it’s this “evolution” that makes the question so difficult to answer. In both of Pawlenty's gubernatorial races, the results were impacted by Minnesota’s unique position of having a viable third party. It’s the same reason that the U.S. Senate race became a draw. Pawlenty won for governor because he held the hardcore conservatives, while Coleman lost to Al Franken because he did not. (Explanation: the hardcore Minnesota Republicans never trusted the Democrat-turned-RINO Coleman. In the Coleman-Franken Senate race, Coleman did not lose by just a couple hundred votes, he lost by 63,203 votes. That’s how many McCain voters did not want Coleman to have a second term. The TARP vote killed Coleman with the hardcore GOP base, and they saw Franken as doing no worse than Coleman.)

But it’s the “evolution” of Pawlenty that is so interesting. Pick a subject and there is a clear hard right turn producing a lack of accomplishment. Take climate change: Early on it appeared that Pawlenty was open-minded. He even announced that he was going to travel to the Arctic Circle with Will Steger to learn about climate change. Well, his Arctic trek never happened. (What Sarah Palin and the global-warming-deniers had to do with it is unknown.)

The state legislature with Pawlenty's wholehearted support did enact legislation to subsidize ethanol in the state's 20% renewables by 2020 plan, but that has largely come at the expense of Minnesota taxpayers. The state is now facing billions of dollars of budget deficits, yet Pawlenty has not touched the fiscal 2009 budget of $8,363,000 in ethanol subsidies (nor the $12,168,000 scheduled for 2010, nor the $12,168,000 for 2011, nor the $19,790,000 still scheduled for fiscal 2012-2013.) Instead, he has cut local government aid, delayed payments to taxpayers and school districts, cut property tax refunds for low income renters, and is eliminating funding for the General Assistance Medical Care program, which provides basic health care for Minnesota’s impoverished and sick.

Another area is his turning his back on his own proposals. He wanted to reform education, health care and taxes. Yet in each case, he has stepped away from those plans.

He created the Task Force on Education Finance Reform to review funding for Minnesota’s schools. When the Task Force reported back that the education funding formula should be reworked to be fairer for districts across the state, Pawlenty disbanded the group.

In 2003, he appointed the Citizens Forum on Health Care Costs, headed by former Republican U.S. Senator Dave Durenberger — and ignored their recommendations. He also refused to implement the recommendations set forth in 2008 by the Health Care Transformation Task Force.

With much fanfare during the 2009 State of the State Address, he created the 21st Century Tax Task Force, which was dominated by business. The report recommended reducing the corporate tax rate and changing other tax collection policies. The Democrats in the Minnesota Legislature agreed, but when the question was raised as to how to replace the revenue, he bailed. One local CEO, who pushed Pawlenty on the issue, called it “a joke”.

And when it isn’t his idea, he still rejects recommendations. The Minnesota Ultra-High Speed Internet Task Force (to which he appointed the members) issued its report on how to expand broadband in Minnesota. (Only one county meets the current recommended guideline.) Monies have been set up in the Federal stimulus project, but Pawlenty refuses to tell taxpayers what his plans are. The first awards are going to a private concern called Connect Nation, which was not part of the Task Forces plans.

Another example is trade with Cuba. Governor Ventura and a group of Minnesotans met with Castro. Pawlenty's Agricultural Commissioner followed up by visiting the country. (There are great opportunities for Minnesota's agriculture and medical businesses.) But when the state legislature passed a resolution urging Congress and the Bush Administration to open the trade barriers, Pawlenty vetoed the resolution stating that Minnesota shouldn't be telling the federal government what to do.

One might expect that the Democrats would criticize Pawlenty, but some of the harshest complaints have been voiced by former Minnesota Republican Governors Arne Carlson and Al Quie, as well as by former Sen. Durenberger. Both Carlson and Quie faced budget battles and budget deficits, but they worked them out with the generally Democrat dominated legislatures. Carlson bemoans that the Pawlenty Administration has “been practicing the politics of avoidance."

Generally, there’s not much support among Minnesotans for a Pawlenty 2012 bid with only 32% saying they would like to see him run for President versus 50% who are opposed. And this is despite the fact that his personal poll numbers remain relatively good — perhaps because he is viewed in the past tense as GINO (Governor In Name Only).

Outside of Minnesota, Pawlenty’s prospects are more a factor of the timing of the GOP primaries, the other candidates and (of course) money.

Iowa is first and Huckabee/Palin will do well. Romney has maintained a presence, but Pawlenty is not getting any traction.

New Hampshire and Nevada should be Romney, then comes South Carolina with a return to the Huckabee/Palin contingent.

After that the schedule is subject to change based on the 2010 Republican National Committee summer meeting. If they go traditional, then Michigan and Florida would be the next big ones. Once again, Romney should do well in Michigan while Romney and Palin/Huckabee would compete in Florida. If the Republicans go with a “small state building to large state” schedule, Pawlenty has a better chance (assuming the small states are the Dakotas, Montana, Maine, etc.), but still the momentum and money should be riding with Romney and Palin/Huckabee.

Pawlenty’s best hope is that Palin and Huckabee decide that they like being sideline commentators rather than elected officeholders, then he could be the alternative to Romney, Thune, Johnson, Paul, etc. Yet he still faces the problem that he has no significant accomplishments as Governor and no natural base (non-veteran, Catholic-turned-Evangelical, non-celebrity, no passionate issue, no foreign policy experience).

My guess is that Pawlenty will continue to play the “I haven’t decided” card and become a paid speaker (like Gingrich/Cheney/Rove). If he decides to return to elective politics, it may be to challenge Al Franken in 2014, thus clearing the way for a 2016 presidential run.

All this is just my opinion. Others may certainly have more favorable response, but as an independent voter who has experienced Pawlenty’s lack of leadership and accomplishment, the GOP needs to look elsewhere.