Negotiations Won't Stop Iran
By David Ignatius
WashPost
WASHINGTON -- Absent some last-minute fireworks, President Bush will leave office with a kind of double-failure on Iran: Administration hard-liners haven't checked Tehran's drive to acquire nuclear weapons technology, and moderates haven't engaged Iran in negotiation and dialogue.
The strategic balance between the two countries is the opposite of what Bush had hoped to accomplish: Iran is stronger than it was eight years ago and the United States, fighting costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, is weaker. Iran spurns America's carrots, and dismisses its sticks.
President-elect Obama wants to open a serious dialogue with Tehran. That's a worthy aspiration, but there's little reason now to believe that it will succeed. Iranian officials are bellicose in public, and privately even the advocates of negotiation warn that the time may not be ripe for a broad strategic discussion. Iran is heading toward a presidential election of its own next June, which will complicate any diplomatic opening.
And as the clock ticks, Iran moves inexorably toward becoming a nuclear weapons state. Despite four U.N. Security Council resolutions condemning the Iranian program, the West seems powerless to stop it.
To see how the strategic situation with Iran has worsened, it's useful to recall what has happened over the past eight years. Graham Allison, the director of Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, suggested this accounting during a meeting this week in Cambridge.
(More here.)
WashPost
WASHINGTON -- Absent some last-minute fireworks, President Bush will leave office with a kind of double-failure on Iran: Administration hard-liners haven't checked Tehran's drive to acquire nuclear weapons technology, and moderates haven't engaged Iran in negotiation and dialogue.
The strategic balance between the two countries is the opposite of what Bush had hoped to accomplish: Iran is stronger than it was eight years ago and the United States, fighting costly wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, is weaker. Iran spurns America's carrots, and dismisses its sticks.
President-elect Obama wants to open a serious dialogue with Tehran. That's a worthy aspiration, but there's little reason now to believe that it will succeed. Iranian officials are bellicose in public, and privately even the advocates of negotiation warn that the time may not be ripe for a broad strategic discussion. Iran is heading toward a presidential election of its own next June, which will complicate any diplomatic opening.
And as the clock ticks, Iran moves inexorably toward becoming a nuclear weapons state. Despite four U.N. Security Council resolutions condemning the Iranian program, the West seems powerless to stop it.
To see how the strategic situation with Iran has worsened, it's useful to recall what has happened over the past eight years. Graham Allison, the director of Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs, suggested this accounting during a meeting this week in Cambridge.
(More here.)
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