Polls Suggest Woes for GOP Senate Chances
By CQ Staff
A series of recent state polls around the country confirm earlier forecasts about the uphill challenge faced this year by Republicans in trying to hold their ground in the Senate, or even staving off new Democratic gains.
Republicans are defending 23 seats this year with five of them open due to retirements while Democrats are defending only 12, all filled by incumbents. That was the basis of a CQ Politics forecast in April that Democrats were well-positioned to add two and possibly as many as eight seats to their 51 to 49 working majority (including independents Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernard Sanders of Vermont).
Surveys in the last few weeks found Republican incumbents teetering near or below 50 percent in the polls, or actually running behind Democratic challengers. In two states where seats were left open by retiring Republicans, the Democratic candidates were running ahead.
• Kentucky: Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, is leading incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell , the Senate GOP leader, by 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent preferring “other” and 4 percent undecided, in a May 22 Rasmussen Reports Survey. McConnell is viewed favorably by 52 percent of voters compared to 42 percent who see him negatively, while Lunsford is viewed positively by 47 percent of voters compared to 42 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen said just 67 percent of John McCain supporters said they would also vote for McConnell, while 28 percent will defect to Lunsford.
• Minnesota: incumbent GOP Sen. Norm Coleman is leading Democratic hopeful Al Franken 47 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent preferring “other” and 3 percent undecided, in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 22. The difference is within the 4.5 percent margin of error. The number of voters who view Coleman favorably or unfavorably are equally divided at 49 percent, while Franken is viewed unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 47 percent. A month ago, Coleman led 50 percent to 43 percent. A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted May 12-15 had Coleman in better shape, leading Franken 51 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 3.6 percent. Coleman is viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters compared to 33 percent, and Franken is viewed unfavorably by 39 percent versus 33 percent who view him favorably. As far as Franken’s tax woes — he admitted he has had to pay penalties and correct past filings in different states - 43 percent of voters say they are satisfied with his explanations and 42 percent say they are not.
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A series of recent state polls around the country confirm earlier forecasts about the uphill challenge faced this year by Republicans in trying to hold their ground in the Senate, or even staving off new Democratic gains.
Republicans are defending 23 seats this year with five of them open due to retirements while Democrats are defending only 12, all filled by incumbents. That was the basis of a CQ Politics forecast in April that Democrats were well-positioned to add two and possibly as many as eight seats to their 51 to 49 working majority (including independents Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut and Bernard Sanders of Vermont).
Surveys in the last few weeks found Republican incumbents teetering near or below 50 percent in the polls, or actually running behind Democratic challengers. In two states where seats were left open by retiring Republicans, the Democratic candidates were running ahead.
• Kentucky: Democratic challenger Bruce Lunsford, a Louisville businessman, is leading incumbent Sen. Mitch McConnell , the Senate GOP leader, by 49 percent to 44 percent with 4 percent preferring “other” and 4 percent undecided, in a May 22 Rasmussen Reports Survey. McConnell is viewed favorably by 52 percent of voters compared to 42 percent who see him negatively, while Lunsford is viewed positively by 47 percent of voters compared to 42 percent. The margin of error is 4.5 percent. Rasmussen said just 67 percent of John McCain supporters said they would also vote for McConnell, while 28 percent will defect to Lunsford.
• Minnesota: incumbent GOP Sen. Norm Coleman is leading Democratic hopeful Al Franken 47 percent to 45 percent with 5 percent preferring “other” and 3 percent undecided, in a Rasmussen Reports poll conducted May 22. The difference is within the 4.5 percent margin of error. The number of voters who view Coleman favorably or unfavorably are equally divided at 49 percent, while Franken is viewed unfavorably by 49 percent and favorably by 47 percent. A month ago, Coleman led 50 percent to 43 percent. A Minneapolis Star Tribune poll conducted May 12-15 had Coleman in better shape, leading Franken 51 percent to 44 percent with a margin of error of 3.6 percent. Coleman is viewed favorably by 53 percent of voters compared to 33 percent, and Franken is viewed unfavorably by 39 percent versus 33 percent who view him favorably. As far as Franken’s tax woes — he admitted he has had to pay penalties and correct past filings in different states - 43 percent of voters say they are satisfied with his explanations and 42 percent say they are not.
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