No new U.S. strategy in Iraq
By GWYNNE DYER
Japan Times
LONDON -- Repeat after me: There is no new U.S. strategy in Iraq. The allies are the same, the enemies are the same, the tactics are the same, even the new American force strength lies within the range that has prevailed since 2003.
We are only being told that there is a new strategy because U.S. President George W. Bush had to say that he was doing something differently after the Republicans' stunning defeat in the mid-term Congressional elections two months ago.
America's allies in Iraq have not changed: the Kurds, and those Shiite Arabs who believe that American troops are still useful to help nail down their new domination over the Sunni Arab minority. That latter group includes the Shiite religious establishment around Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, the Iranian-backed Badr Brigade and its associated death squads, and some of the Shiite factions close to Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki.
The list of America's enemies in Iraq has not changed either: most Sunni Arabs, whether they are Ba'athist, Islamist or just nationalist; and the more radical (and usually poorer) Shiite Arabs who support Muqtada Al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army and death squads. But Al-Sadr's supporters have grown at the expense of moderate Shiite forces: For the first time, opinion polls now show that a majority of Shiites also favor attacks on U.S. forces.
As for the tactics, it's the same mix as before: block-by-block "clear and hold" operations in Baghdad (last tried unsuccessfully last summer); a major offensive against the Mahdi Army (tried twice without success in 2004); and nothing much beyond trying to keep the roads open in Anbar province in western Iraq, the heartland of the Sunni Arab insurgency. There are no surprises, no new approaches -- and the alleged "surge" in U.S. troop numbers is meaningless in military terms.
(The rest is here.)
Japan Times
LONDON -- Repeat after me: There is no new U.S. strategy in Iraq. The allies are the same, the enemies are the same, the tactics are the same, even the new American force strength lies within the range that has prevailed since 2003.
We are only being told that there is a new strategy because U.S. President George W. Bush had to say that he was doing something differently after the Republicans' stunning defeat in the mid-term Congressional elections two months ago.
America's allies in Iraq have not changed: the Kurds, and those Shiite Arabs who believe that American troops are still useful to help nail down their new domination over the Sunni Arab minority. That latter group includes the Shiite religious establishment around Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani, the Iranian-backed Badr Brigade and its associated death squads, and some of the Shiite factions close to Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki.
The list of America's enemies in Iraq has not changed either: most Sunni Arabs, whether they are Ba'athist, Islamist or just nationalist; and the more radical (and usually poorer) Shiite Arabs who support Muqtada Al-Sadr and his Mahdi Army and death squads. But Al-Sadr's supporters have grown at the expense of moderate Shiite forces: For the first time, opinion polls now show that a majority of Shiites also favor attacks on U.S. forces.
As for the tactics, it's the same mix as before: block-by-block "clear and hold" operations in Baghdad (last tried unsuccessfully last summer); a major offensive against the Mahdi Army (tried twice without success in 2004); and nothing much beyond trying to keep the roads open in Anbar province in western Iraq, the heartland of the Sunni Arab insurgency. There are no surprises, no new approaches -- and the alleged "surge" in U.S. troop numbers is meaningless in military terms.
(The rest is here.)
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