Iraq Study Group Report: "No good options"
No surprise: Former Bush foreign policy advisor pessimistic about Iraq
by Leigh Pomeroy
"There are no good options," says retired White House foreign policy advisor Tom Maertens. "The military says we can't stay, we can't leave, we can't win."
The Iraq Study Group Report recommendation that the U.S. begin withdrawing from combat in Iraq is no surprise to Maertens. He was working as the U.S. Department of State Deputy Coordinator for Counterterrorism when the war was being planned. He could see then it was going to end up as a disaster.
Though he says his retirement after 30 years in the Foreign Service had nothing to do with the Bush administration's foreign policy, he has been an outspoken critic of that policy since he left the White House and moved his family back to Minnesota, where he grew up.
If he were in Bush's place, he says, the U.S. would not be in Iraq. But if he were to inherit the current situation, much like Defense Secretary nominee William Gates will do when confirmed, the first step he'd take is move U.S. troops from active military engagement. That would mean pulling out of Baghdad and Anbar Province, and withdrawing to Kurdistan and Kuwait. He says the only troops to remain should be there to guard the Green Zone in Baghdad and the oil fields. "The U.S. should not be conducting the counterinsurgency," he says.
The terrorist threat from Al Qaeda isn't credible, he says. "Ninety-three to 94% of Iraqis distrust Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda's not the problem. Foreign terrorists account for only about 2-3 per cent of the insurgents, and they would probably be expelled if they were not assisting the insurgents by attacking U.S. troops."
Maertens contends that regardless of what the U.S. does, there is a three-to-one chance that the country will break up. "Ninety-eight percent of Kurds have voted for independence, and there's already ethnic cleansing going on in Kirkuk." Kirkuk is a traditional Kurdish city and the center of the northern Iraq oil fields. When Saddam was in power, he actively moved Sunnis into the city and placed them into high-ranking positions in order to strengthen his position in the northern part of the country. Now the Kurds are telling the Sunnis to go back home.
Maertens points out that 20% of the population and 20% of the country's oil is in the Kurdish-controlled north. They could survive very well independently; the only question is: What would Turkey do?
Turkey, which shares a border with Kurdish northern Iraq, has been adamantly against an independent Kurdistan. Turkey has a large Kurdish population, and the leaders of that country feel that an independent Kurdistan will fuel Kurdish nationalism against the Turk-controlled government.
Maertens believes that the only reason why Kurdistan has not yet completely split from the central government in Baghdad is because it is unsure the U.S. will restrain Turkey, which has threatened to invade Kurdistan should it declare its independence.
Whatever decisions the U.S. makes, the consequences are impossible to predict due to the presence of so many players in the conflict, all with different and often incompatible interests. There are no simple, black-and-white solutions.
"Bush is hoping his legacy will be preserved," Maertens says. "I'm afraid he's hoping against hope."
(Tom Maertens' biography can be viewed here.)
by Leigh Pomeroy
"There are no good options," says retired White House foreign policy advisor Tom Maertens. "The military says we can't stay, we can't leave, we can't win."
The Iraq Study Group Report recommendation that the U.S. begin withdrawing from combat in Iraq is no surprise to Maertens. He was working as the U.S. Department of State Deputy Coordinator for Counterterrorism when the war was being planned. He could see then it was going to end up as a disaster.
Though he says his retirement after 30 years in the Foreign Service had nothing to do with the Bush administration's foreign policy, he has been an outspoken critic of that policy since he left the White House and moved his family back to Minnesota, where he grew up.
If he were in Bush's place, he says, the U.S. would not be in Iraq. But if he were to inherit the current situation, much like Defense Secretary nominee William Gates will do when confirmed, the first step he'd take is move U.S. troops from active military engagement. That would mean pulling out of Baghdad and Anbar Province, and withdrawing to Kurdistan and Kuwait. He says the only troops to remain should be there to guard the Green Zone in Baghdad and the oil fields. "The U.S. should not be conducting the counterinsurgency," he says.
The terrorist threat from Al Qaeda isn't credible, he says. "Ninety-three to 94% of Iraqis distrust Al Qaeda. Al Qaeda's not the problem. Foreign terrorists account for only about 2-3 per cent of the insurgents, and they would probably be expelled if they were not assisting the insurgents by attacking U.S. troops."
Maertens contends that regardless of what the U.S. does, there is a three-to-one chance that the country will break up. "Ninety-eight percent of Kurds have voted for independence, and there's already ethnic cleansing going on in Kirkuk." Kirkuk is a traditional Kurdish city and the center of the northern Iraq oil fields. When Saddam was in power, he actively moved Sunnis into the city and placed them into high-ranking positions in order to strengthen his position in the northern part of the country. Now the Kurds are telling the Sunnis to go back home.
Maertens points out that 20% of the population and 20% of the country's oil is in the Kurdish-controlled north. They could survive very well independently; the only question is: What would Turkey do?
Turkey, which shares a border with Kurdish northern Iraq, has been adamantly against an independent Kurdistan. Turkey has a large Kurdish population, and the leaders of that country feel that an independent Kurdistan will fuel Kurdish nationalism against the Turk-controlled government.
Maertens believes that the only reason why Kurdistan has not yet completely split from the central government in Baghdad is because it is unsure the U.S. will restrain Turkey, which has threatened to invade Kurdistan should it declare its independence.
Whatever decisions the U.S. makes, the consequences are impossible to predict due to the presence of so many players in the conflict, all with different and often incompatible interests. There are no simple, black-and-white solutions.
"Bush is hoping his legacy will be preserved," Maertens says. "I'm afraid he's hoping against hope."
(Tom Maertens' biography can be viewed here.)
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