Did the DM&E determine the election outcome in Rochester?

While the election generated major media hoopla, the issues that contributed to its outcome are still there: Iraq, corruption, the national deficit — nothing has gone away.

These national issues may have grabbed the spotlight, but local issues in many races made the critical difference. In Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, the election probably hinged on a pending government-sponsored $2.3 billion loan for the DM&E railroad. Incumbent Republican Gil Gutknecht, who supports the loan, lost the election to a newcomer with no political background, Tim Walz, who opposes it.

The Mayo Clinic, City of Rochester and Olmsted County, where the former two are located, are all fighting the railroad's proposed upgrade through Rochester and thus the loan. And for the first time in over a decade, Olmsted County voters turned their backs on the Republican candidate and cast their ballots for the Democrat.

The 2006 election results are striking. In Olmsted County, Mr. Gutknecht received 15,000 fewer votes than he got in the previous election, while Mr. Walz gained over 6,000 more than the Democratic tally in 2004. Below are the numbers:

Year	Party	Candidate	Total	Percent	Vote Difference from Previous Election	Percent Change from Previous Election
2006	Republican	Gil Gutknecht	27,134	48.3%	-15,048	-13.8%
	Democrat	Tim Walz	28,982	51.6%	+6,324	+18.2%
2004	Republican	Gil Gutknecht	42,182	62.1%	+8,859	-1.6%
	Democrat	Leigh Pomeroy	22,658	33.4%	+5,352	+0.3%
2002	Republican	Gil Gutknecht	33,323	63.7%	-2,064	+3.0%
	Democrat	Steve Andreasen	17,306	33.1%	-4,549	-4.4%
2000	Republican	Gil Gutknecht	35,387	60.7%	-	-
	Democrat	Mary Rieder	21,855	37.5%	-	-

(NOTE: Not all numbers total to 100% because of 3rd party candidates.)

It's doubtful that national issues alone contributed to such a difference. In fact, Democrats for all offices in Olmsted County made impressive gains, with the DM&E being a primary issue in their campaigns as well.

Contrast these results to the vote for Governor, where the DM&E issue played little, if any, role. While statewide the Republican incumbent Tim Pawlenty barely squeaked by Democratic challenger Mike Hatch by less than 1%, Pawlenty's edge in Olmsted County was 16%. This indicates that although the area's historically Republican roots are still strong, a significant number of Pawlenty voters also voted for Walz.

The exact breakdown of the reasons for voters choosing to cross party lines at this point is up to conjecture. But there is no doubt in the mind of anyone who knows the Rochester political scene that the DM&E issue played a major role in the 2006 elections.