by Tom Maertens
Several weeks have gone by and there have been no press notices that Yevgeny Prigozhin has “fallen” out of a high rise window. Instead, the Kremlin announced that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Prigozhin, along with 35 of his top commanders, held a three-hour meeting at the Kremlin on June 29.
That doesn’t mean nothing will happen to him: Prigozhin has demonstrated Putin’s weakness, causing him enormous embarrassment.
To refresh, Prigozhin led a private army on behalf of Russia in Africa, the Middle East and Ukraine. One day he set off from Ukraine for Moscow with 25,000 well-trained, well-armed troops. His announced intention initially was to settle scores with the Russian Minister of Defense and the chief of the general staff for failing to supply his troops in Ukraine as promised.
Then he decided to challenge Putin, too.
Having crossed the Rubicon, so to speak, he got within 130 miles of Moscow and then wimped out.
The likely explanation for this is that he expected Russian military units to join him. There were no public announcements that we know of by military leaders or units, which meant that 25,000 troops were not as impressive as first appeared to “Putin’s chef,” the guy who started out selling hot dogs in Red Square.
One likely supporter was Gen. Sergei Surovikin, the head of Russia’s air force; he hasn’t been seen in public since the mutiny. Western intelligence agencies have specifically mentioned him as a potential backer of Prigozhin’s rebellion, which may not be good for his long-term survival.
The Wall Street Journal reported that the country’s domestic security service detained several high-ranking military officers, including Gen. Surovikin. His deputy, Col. Gen. Andrey Yudin, and the deputy head of military intelligence, Lt. Gen. Vladimir Alexeyev, also were detained but later released. They have been suspended from duty, their movements have been restricted and they are under observation, the paper reported.
The crisis was settled by Putin’s fellow dictator, the president of Belarus and a purported friend of Prigozhin, Alexander Lukashenko, who negotiated with Prigozhin by cellphone.
As the Russian American journalist Julia Ioffe put it, Prigozhin is a torturer, a murderer, and a fascist. She could have added, just like Putin and Lukashenko.
Putin and Lukashenko are allies of sorts, which is to say, Lukashenko is Putin’s puppet. In fact, Putin recently transferred nuclear weapons to Belarus and has transferred offensive weapons to bases in Belarus to use against Ukraine.
One of the consequences of Putin’s war in Ukraine, is that two long-time neutrals, Sweden and Finland have applied to join NATO. Turkish president Erdogan initially opposed Sweden’s entry because it has allowed the Kurdish opposition to operate on Swedish soil. After extensive negotiations, and probably some quiet “grease,” he’s now prepared to accept Sweden’s entry into NATO.
That will bring the alliance to 32 members and double its border with Russia.
Another consequence is that young Russians are fleeing the country. Polling by the Levada Center in the summer of 2021, indicated that 48% of Russians 18 to 24 years old wanted to emigrate permanently, a desire shared by almost a third of those 25 to 39. CNN reported earlier this year that nearly 22,000 Russians have tried to enter the U.S. since Putin’s war draft.
When Putin succeeded Yeltsin as president, he endorsed Russian intelligence connections with the country’s mobsters and oligarchs, allowing them to operate freely as long as they served his personal interests. Multiple sources make clear that Putin and the FSB/KGB essentially control the Russian mob.
It was Yeltsin who said that “Russia is the biggest mafia state in the world, the superpower of crime that is devouring the state from top to bottom.” A mafia state with nukes.
There are implications for the U.S. as well. The Guardian uncovered elaborate ties between the Trump family and Russian money laundering in New York real estate a few years ago. (https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2017/jul/24/jared-kushner-new-york-russia-money-laundering).
In addition, according to investigative journalist Craig Unger in The New Republic, at least 13 people with known or alleged links to Russian mobsters or oligarchs have owned, lived in, and even run criminal activities out of Trump Tower and other Trump properties over the past three decades.
USA Today reported that “the president (Trump) and his companies have been linked to at least 10 wealthy former Soviet businessmen with alleged ties to criminal organizations or money laundering.”
If Trump is not in prison, he will be the Republican nominee and Russia will back him once again with disinformation, hacking, false front operations and other means.
Tom Maertens worked on Soviet and then Russia issues for many years from Leningrad (St. Petersburg), Moscow, the state department, the U.S. Senate and the White House.
No comments:
Post a Comment