Tide rising against Trump from within

by Tom Maertens

Tom Maertens provided political and intelligence analysis to the U.S. government for many years from places as varied as Russia/USSR, Ethiopia, Colombia, Austria and Panama.

It’s clear the fever is breaking.

Former Vice President Mike Pence recently rebuked ex-President Donald Trump as being “wrong” for thinking Pence could unilaterally change the election; GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell called Jan. 6 a “violent insurrection;” Chris Christie said that Trump incited a riot to intimidate Pence; and Trump — out of desperation — continues attacking a range of legislators from his own party.

McConnell has boasted that not a single Republican senator has publicly supported removing him as leader, as Trump has demanded. In addition, Rudy Giuliani has reportedly agreed to cooperate with the Jan. 6 committee.

Several big Republican donors, such as Art Pope of North Carolina, have suggested that maybe Trump shouldn’t run.

Since he left office, online searches, social media interactions and television news coverage have all fallen sharply.

Trump is also facing at least five other investigations in several jurisdictions, two of which involve criminal charges.

Trump’s standing in opinion polls is also sliding; some recent polls show his favorable/unfavorable rating underwater by double digits (YouGov, Morning Consult).

One of Trump’s more costly decisions seems to have been refusing to pay Giuliani, to whom he reportedly owes millions for legal services. That lends some credence to the report that his loyal stooge may testify against him.

If that weren’t enough, the Trump Organization’s accounting firm said that at least 10 years of its financial statements are unreliable. One has to wonder what legitimate accounting firm would now take Trump as a client, knowing that he is notorious for lying and doesn’t pay his bills.

The Republican National Committee (RNC) is still on Trump’s side. It tried to whitewash the Jan. 6 insurrection by labeling it “legitimate political discourse.” The five dead and the 150 injured cops were apparently just collateral damage from the “discourse;” likewise, the feces on the walls and the millions in damage.

In an unprecedented move, the RNC agreed to pay up to $1.6 million in legal bills for Trump, resulting from past business practices. You have to wonder how many donors contributed in order to pay Trump’s private legal expenses.

At the same time the RNC censured Reps. Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger for participating in the Jan. 6 commission’s inquiry into the insurrection. Besides the dead and injured, over 750 people have been indicted, including eleven Oath Keepers for “seditious conspiracy,” a crime punishable by up to 20 years in prison.

Trump has said that if he is reelected, he will pardon those convicted, who, he claims, are being treated very unfairly.

So far, very few House Republicans have broken with Trump, but once the deadline for him to organize a primary opponent is past, some may find a spine. Remember that 147 Republican legislators endorsed Trump’s attempted coup by voting to accept his claims of victory.

It’s astonishing that not a single member of Congress has questioned how it happened that s/he was re-elected on the same ballot that allegedly was rigged against Trump.

In the meantime, in the absence of any actual policies except subservience to Trump, the Republican response has been to stoke the culture wars, peddling fear and hate about race, especially CRT, abortion, and LGBTQ issues.

The Jan. 6 commission has already interviewed over 500 people, including some Trump insiders. Inevitably a few will attempt to save their skins by flipping on Trump. Some witnesses who refused to cooperate have already been referred to the Justice Department for prosecution, including Steve Bannon and Trump’s former chief of staff, Mark Meadows.

In addition, there will be public hearings this year. Televised hearings during Watergate were instrumental in exposing President Richard Nixon’s crimes and persuading even Republicans that he had to go, the result of an outraged public pressuring their elected representatives.

The Jan. 6 commission report and Merrick Garland’s decisions on whom to prosecute will also move the needle.

Joe Biden’s standing in the polls has declined as well, likely due to a combination of the highest inflation rate in 40 years — 7.5% — and the continuing COVID pandemic. New COVID cases have dropped dramatically in a month, from 800,000 to 200,000 per day, but 2,400 people are still dying very day.

Disposable income for Americans actually increased overall by 5.3% above inflation from December 2019 to December 2021; combined with the COVID relief payments, the bottom 50% of earners saw their disposable income rise by 10.9%, resulting in childhood poverty declining by 40% in 2021.

The administration seems unable to get a positive economic message across above the COVID and inflation static, however.