Friday, December 25, 2015

A big hint about why so many people support Donald Trump might come from Germany

By Jeff Guo December 24 at 8:38 AM, WashPost

A popular theory for Donald Trump's success emphasizes the economic anxiety of less-educated whites, who have struggled badly over the past few decades.

Hit hard by factory closings and jobs moving abroad to China and other places, the story goes, blue-collar voters are channeling their anger at immigrants, who have out-competed them for what jobs remain. Trump, with his remarks about Mexicans being rapists, has ridden this discontent to the top of the polls.

The data suggest there's some kind of connection. According to polls, whites with a high school degree or less disproportionately favor Trump. These are the same people who have seen their economic opportunities decline the most in recent years. This group also disproportionately favors tough restrictions on immigration.

But just because there appears to be a connection doesn't mean there is one. Has globalization pushed working-class voters to the right? Nobody has proven that globalization has in fact pushed working-class voters to the right or made them more extreme, at least not in the United States, where the right kind of data aren’t being collected. But unique records from Germany have allowed economists to show how free trade changes people's political opinions.

(More here.)

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