Friday, August 14, 2015

Is Hillary Clinton Really in Danger of Losing the Primary?

Nate Cohn, NYT
AUG. 13, 2015

Bernie Sanders is said to be surging, Joe Biden is considering jumping in the race, and Hillary Rodham Clinton’s unfavorable ratings are the worst they’ve been in her 23-plus years in national politics — worse than they were in 2007 or 2008.

Whether you call it wishful thinking or a worst-case scenario, it’s enough to make some people say the Clinton campaign is in serious trouble. But is it? Has she forfeited the huge advantages she held at the start of the year? Does Mr. Sanders, or another Democrat, have a real chance to beat her in the primary? Has she done great damage to her chances in the general election?

Probably not. At least not yet. It could change if the investigation into her email account takes a more serious turn, or if another problem arises. But for now, the damage to Mrs. Clinton has been overstated.

You might not know it if you’re reading the various articles about Mr. Sanders’s rise in the polls, but Mrs. Clinton still holds as strong a position as any primary candidate in history. And oddly, Mr. Sanders and Mr. Biden have helped clarify that strength.

(More here.)

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