If you dispute Chris Christie's budget estimates, he'll go after you — even if you're right
Updated by Andrew Prokop, Vox on April 29, 2014, 2:50 p.m. ET
"Governor Christie's predictions for tax collections have missed the mark," the Bergen Record's John Reitmeyer writes today, and the state now has an $800 million budget shortfall. It's only the latest in a series of optimistic budget estimates by Christie that have been disproven by reality.
Economic forecasting is hard, and there isn't malfeasance behind every missed projection. But what makes this particularly embarrassing for Christie is that, when the state's top budget wonk criticized his past forecasts, Christie responded by insulting him and suggesting that he be fired.
There's a long history of politicians in executive office releasing misleading or overly-optimistic budget numbers. Often, they do so by assuming soaring economic growth and increasing tax revenues — which can help them avoid painful decisions about spending cuts or tax increases.
"Why would anyone with a functioning brain believe this guy?" Christie said
That's why Washington has the Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan legislative agency that frequently throws cold water on the White House's hopes. If the president asserts that his policies will lead the deficit to plummet, the CBO will usually offer its own independent and skeptical assessment. New Jersey has a similar nonpartisan agency, the Office of Legislative Services, and for 30 years its chief budget officer has been a man named David Rosen.
(More here.)
"Governor Christie's predictions for tax collections have missed the mark," the Bergen Record's John Reitmeyer writes today, and the state now has an $800 million budget shortfall. It's only the latest in a series of optimistic budget estimates by Christie that have been disproven by reality.
Economic forecasting is hard, and there isn't malfeasance behind every missed projection. But what makes this particularly embarrassing for Christie is that, when the state's top budget wonk criticized his past forecasts, Christie responded by insulting him and suggesting that he be fired.
There's a long history of politicians in executive office releasing misleading or overly-optimistic budget numbers. Often, they do so by assuming soaring economic growth and increasing tax revenues — which can help them avoid painful decisions about spending cuts or tax increases.
"Why would anyone with a functioning brain believe this guy?" Christie said
That's why Washington has the Congressional Budget Office, the nonpartisan legislative agency that frequently throws cold water on the White House's hopes. If the president asserts that his policies will lead the deficit to plummet, the CBO will usually offer its own independent and skeptical assessment. New Jersey has a similar nonpartisan agency, the Office of Legislative Services, and for 30 years its chief budget officer has been a man named David Rosen.
(More here.)
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