For Russia, Negatives Seem to Outweigh Positives of an Invasion
By NEIL MacFARQUHAR, NYT, APRIL 26, 2014
MOSCOW — Ukraine becomes more of a tinderbox by the day.
Thousands of Russian troops are maneuvering along the border, with Russian fighter jets menacing Ukraine’s airspace. Ukrainian leaders have warned that border crossings by any soldiers would be considered an invasion, even while the country pursues military operations against a pro-Russian rebellion in the east. Washington and Moscow hurl ever more heated pronouncements. The first casualties lie in fresh graves.
No less an authority than Gen. Philip M. Breedlove of the United States Air Force, NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe, has said Russia could overrun eastern Ukraine in three to five days. In other words, Russia could basically achieve its goal of creating a neutral, weak Ukraine almost instantly.
But will it?
At first glance, the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, seems to have strong reasons to dispatch his tanks: shaping the Ukraine he wants well before elections scheduled for May 25 put a new, legitimate government in place; reclaiming an area that was historically part of Russia; gaining direct access to natural resources and factories that have been crucial to Moscow’s military-industrial complex since Soviet times. And his land grab of Crimea in March made him wildly popular at home.
(More here.)
MOSCOW — Ukraine becomes more of a tinderbox by the day.
Thousands of Russian troops are maneuvering along the border, with Russian fighter jets menacing Ukraine’s airspace. Ukrainian leaders have warned that border crossings by any soldiers would be considered an invasion, even while the country pursues military operations against a pro-Russian rebellion in the east. Washington and Moscow hurl ever more heated pronouncements. The first casualties lie in fresh graves.
No less an authority than Gen. Philip M. Breedlove of the United States Air Force, NATO’s supreme allied commander in Europe, has said Russia could overrun eastern Ukraine in three to five days. In other words, Russia could basically achieve its goal of creating a neutral, weak Ukraine almost instantly.
But will it?
At first glance, the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, seems to have strong reasons to dispatch his tanks: shaping the Ukraine he wants well before elections scheduled for May 25 put a new, legitimate government in place; reclaiming an area that was historically part of Russia; gaining direct access to natural resources and factories that have been crucial to Moscow’s military-industrial complex since Soviet times. And his land grab of Crimea in March made him wildly popular at home.
(More here.)
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1 Comments:
The biggest negative is if President Obama would issue a strict 'red line' - that will scare anyone.
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