Ukraine must exercise restraint in the face of Russian aggression
By William B. Taylor, Steven K. Pifer and John E. Herbst, WashPost, Sunday, March 2, 6:10 PM
William B. Taylor was U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009 and is vice president for the Middle East and Africa at the United States Institute of Peace. Steven K. Pifer was U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000 and is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. John E. Herbst was U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2003 to 2006 and directs the Center for Complex Operations at National Defense University. They collaborated on this op-ed with the other two former U.S. ambassadors to Ukraine, Roman Popadiuk and William Green Miller.
The Ukrainians will fight. For the past few days, the Russian military has attempted to provoke the Ukrainians into making the mistake the Georgians made in 2008: shooting first. First, Russia sent unmarked troops off their base in Sevastopol; the Ukrainians did not take the bait. Next, the Russians sent armored units up the road to Simferopol, the capital of Crimea, but still the Ukrainians did not respond with violence. Then these unmarked troops took over airfields and administration buildings around Crimea, effectively occupying the peninsula. The Ukrainians put their military forces on high alert and called up their military reserves — but have not attacked. This restraint is wise but agonizing. If the Russians attack Ukrainian forces in Crimea or eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian military will respond, and the war would be terrible.
Neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian military is a formidable fighting force. Economic pressures have starved both militaries of resources; readiness is low, and morale in general is not high. But a Russian attack on Ukrainian forces or a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine would change some of that. Ukrainian forces from all over the country would converge to fiercely resist the invasion.
(More here.)
William B. Taylor was U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009 and is vice president for the Middle East and Africa at the United States Institute of Peace. Steven K. Pifer was U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000 and is a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution. John E. Herbst was U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2003 to 2006 and directs the Center for Complex Operations at National Defense University. They collaborated on this op-ed with the other two former U.S. ambassadors to Ukraine, Roman Popadiuk and William Green Miller.
The Ukrainians will fight. For the past few days, the Russian military has attempted to provoke the Ukrainians into making the mistake the Georgians made in 2008: shooting first. First, Russia sent unmarked troops off their base in Sevastopol; the Ukrainians did not take the bait. Next, the Russians sent armored units up the road to Simferopol, the capital of Crimea, but still the Ukrainians did not respond with violence. Then these unmarked troops took over airfields and administration buildings around Crimea, effectively occupying the peninsula. The Ukrainians put their military forces on high alert and called up their military reserves — but have not attacked. This restraint is wise but agonizing. If the Russians attack Ukrainian forces in Crimea or eastern Ukraine, the Ukrainian military will respond, and the war would be terrible.
Neither the Russian nor the Ukrainian military is a formidable fighting force. Economic pressures have starved both militaries of resources; readiness is low, and morale in general is not high. But a Russian attack on Ukrainian forces or a Russian invasion of eastern Ukraine would change some of that. Ukrainian forces from all over the country would converge to fiercely resist the invasion.
(More here.)
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