How Strong Will the Anti-Democratic Backlash Be?

Thomas B. Esdall, NYT
MARCH 25, 2014

Why isn’t the Republican Party paying a heavy price for its dependence on a shrinking white electorate, its rejection of immigration reform and its “just say no” legislative strategy?

According to a number of analysts, including Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.com, Republicans are slightly favored this year to retake the Senate and to increase their majority in the House.

Most explanations involve likely turnout patterns – the pro-Republican tilt of the whiter, older and more affluent electorate in nonpresidential election years. Another key factor is Obama’s current 52.6 percent disapproval rating.

Bill McInturff, the founder of the Republican polling firm Public Opinion Strategies, offered me a succinct comment to explain how the midterm elections are shaping up:

“ON THE RECORD: Thank you President Obama.”

Going largely unmentioned in most analyses is the inability of the Obama administration to markedly improve the economy, which could end up playing a big role in the unraveling of the Democratic Party’s electoral fortunes, not only in 2014 but also in 2016.

(More here.)