SMRs and AMRs

Monday, April 08, 2013

State capitol musical chairs: When the music stops ...

Which Governors Are Most Vulnerable in 2014?

By MICAH COHEN, NYT

A lot can change before Election Day next year, when 36 states will vote for governor. But at this early stage — when decisions on whether to run or retire are considered and made — 10 of the 32 governors who are eligible to run for re-election have net negative approval ratings in their states.

The two most unpopular governors up for re-election in 2014 are Gov. Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island, an independent, and Gov. Pat Quinn of Illinois, a Democrat. But the remaining eight governors with net negative job approval ratings are Republicans, including four who rode the Tea Party wave to power in blue and purple states in 2010 and now appear to be in some danger: Gov. Rick Scott of Florida, Gov. Tom Corbett of Pennsylvania, Gov. Paul LePage of Maine and Gov. Rick Snyder of Michigan.

The chart below includes the three most recent job approval polls for each incumbent eligible for re-election in 2014. (The four states where term limits prevent the governor from running again — Arizona, Maryland, Nebraska and Arkansas — and Massachusetts, where Gov. Deval Patrick has announced he will not seek another term, are not included.) Surveys conducted before 2012 are not figured into the averages.

In Rhode Island, just 28 percent of residents approve of the job performance of Mr. Chafee, their Republican-turned-independent governor. The chief reason for Mr. Chafee’s troubles appears to be Rhode Island’s dismal economy. The state is tied with California for the highest unemployment rate in the nation, at 9.8 percent.

(More here.)

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