Obama's fiscal proposal aligns him with the politics of minority, millennial, and college-educated voters
A New Budget for a New Party
by Ronald Brownstein, National Journal
April 11, 2013 | 5:00 p.m.
The keening on the left about President Obama’s budget proposal this week suggests that large portions of the Democratic base still don’t understand the political and economic dynamics of the party’s changing electoral coalition.
Much of this year’s Washington story is about Obama aligning the Democratic agenda with the priorities of the “coalition of the ascendant”—minorities, the millennial generation, and college-educated whites, especially women—that powered his 2008 and 2012 victories. He is nearing Senate breakthroughs on gun control (which attracts overwhelming support from minorities and upscale whites, particularly women) and immigration reform (a top priority for Hispanics). At the Supreme Court, he embraced same-sex marriage, also tracking with millennials and upscale white women. Obama isn’t assured of victory in any of these confrontations, but the wavering Republican resistance across all three hints at the modern Democratic coalition’s potential to drive the national debate, especially as its key components continue to increase in number.
The Obama fiscal blueprint released this week cautiously dips into this same current by seeking to restrain entitlement spending while invigorating public investment (through initiatives such as expanded preschool, an infrastructure bank, and more college aid). That combination would challenge the federal budget’s hardening tendency to favor the old over the young. Through proposed changes in the way inflation is calculated to determine Social Security benefits, more cost-sharing for Medicare recipients, and cost savings from drug companies and health providers, the president is looking to reduce entitlement spending by about $800 billion over 10 years. That’s what has provoked the liberal uproar, with MoveOn.org and other groups threatening primary challenges against any congressional Democrat who backs entitlement cuts.
Yet allowing entitlements to continue on their current path guarantees a sustained squeeze on the discretionary spending programs such as education that invest in future generations. In 1969, according to Office of Management and Budget figures released this week, payments to individuals (primarily entitlements) and investments in the future (defined as education and training, scientific research, and infrastructure) each constituted about one-third of the federal budget. By 2012, payments to individuals had reached 65 percent of the budget—and investments had plummeted to just 14 percent.
(More here.)
by Ronald Brownstein, National Journal
April 11, 2013 | 5:00 p.m.
The keening on the left about President Obama’s budget proposal this week suggests that large portions of the Democratic base still don’t understand the political and economic dynamics of the party’s changing electoral coalition.
Much of this year’s Washington story is about Obama aligning the Democratic agenda with the priorities of the “coalition of the ascendant”—minorities, the millennial generation, and college-educated whites, especially women—that powered his 2008 and 2012 victories. He is nearing Senate breakthroughs on gun control (which attracts overwhelming support from minorities and upscale whites, particularly women) and immigration reform (a top priority for Hispanics). At the Supreme Court, he embraced same-sex marriage, also tracking with millennials and upscale white women. Obama isn’t assured of victory in any of these confrontations, but the wavering Republican resistance across all three hints at the modern Democratic coalition’s potential to drive the national debate, especially as its key components continue to increase in number.
The Obama fiscal blueprint released this week cautiously dips into this same current by seeking to restrain entitlement spending while invigorating public investment (through initiatives such as expanded preschool, an infrastructure bank, and more college aid). That combination would challenge the federal budget’s hardening tendency to favor the old over the young. Through proposed changes in the way inflation is calculated to determine Social Security benefits, more cost-sharing for Medicare recipients, and cost savings from drug companies and health providers, the president is looking to reduce entitlement spending by about $800 billion over 10 years. That’s what has provoked the liberal uproar, with MoveOn.org and other groups threatening primary challenges against any congressional Democrat who backs entitlement cuts.
Yet allowing entitlements to continue on their current path guarantees a sustained squeeze on the discretionary spending programs such as education that invest in future generations. In 1969, according to Office of Management and Budget figures released this week, payments to individuals (primarily entitlements) and investments in the future (defined as education and training, scientific research, and infrastructure) each constituted about one-third of the federal budget. By 2012, payments to individuals had reached 65 percent of the budget—and investments had plummeted to just 14 percent.
(More here.)
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