Bye-bye Intrade, and the ramifications thereof
Even Without Intrade, Billions Will Be Bet on 2016 Race
By NATE SILVER, NYT
The popular prediction market Intrade, which in November shut down its markets to United States residents after a complaint from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, announced on Sunday that it was closing down entirely.
I’m less interested in speculating upon the business or legal reasons for Intrade’s shutdown than in pressing a simple point: billions will still be wagered on the outcome of the 2016 elections, with or without Intrade in place.
Some of this is because there are other betting markets and bookmakers who offer odds on the election. Several of these sites are already taking bets on the identity of the 2016 Republican presidential nominee, for instance, along with any number of other races. Most of these sites are not open to Americans. But they tended to perform more rationally than Intrade over the course of the 2012 campaign, with their prices more closely tracking polls, prediction models and news events.
The billions I’m referring to, however, will be wagered somewhere else: Wall Street. Consider what happened to a series of stocks on Nov. 7 of last year, the day after Barack Obama won the election.
(More here.)
By NATE SILVER, NYT
The popular prediction market Intrade, which in November shut down its markets to United States residents after a complaint from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, announced on Sunday that it was closing down entirely.
I’m less interested in speculating upon the business or legal reasons for Intrade’s shutdown than in pressing a simple point: billions will still be wagered on the outcome of the 2016 elections, with or without Intrade in place.
Some of this is because there are other betting markets and bookmakers who offer odds on the election. Several of these sites are already taking bets on the identity of the 2016 Republican presidential nominee, for instance, along with any number of other races. Most of these sites are not open to Americans. But they tended to perform more rationally than Intrade over the course of the 2012 campaign, with their prices more closely tracking polls, prediction models and news events.
The billions I’m referring to, however, will be wagered somewhere else: Wall Street. Consider what happened to a series of stocks on Nov. 7 of last year, the day after Barack Obama won the election.
(More here.)
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