Overwhelmingly white Republican Party remains competitive
What We Already Know
By THOMAS B. EDSALL, NYT
There are a number of conclusions that can be drawn from the 2012 presidential contest without trying to predict the winner. As the polls are about to open, let's look at some of these developments, which fall into four broad categories that will shape the future of politics.
Demographic Trends: The first major development (or non-development) revealed by this year's campaign is that the pro-Democratic demographic tidal wave threatening to swamp the Republican Party has not crested. The overwhelmingly white Republican Party remains competitive.
The primary factor keeping Romney within reach of President Obama is his decisive margin among white voters. African-Americans and Hispanics remain solidly Democratic. Blacks back Obama by the same 91 point margin that he had in 2008. Obama's margin of support among Hispanics, 69-21, is substantially larger than his 67-31 margin 4 years ago. (The 2008 data is from exit polls in which by definition there are no undecided voters; the 2012 data still have a bloc of the undecided.)
The demographic threat to the Republican Party grows out of the fact that every four years the electorate becomes roughly two percent less white and two percent more minority, primarily as a result of the increase in the Hispanic and Asian-American populations and the relatively low birth rate among whites. By my computation, this translates into a modest 0.85 percentage point gain for Democrats and 0.85 percentage point loss for Republicans every four years. In other words, the changing composition of the electorate gives Democrats an additional built-in advantage of 1.7 percentage points every four years.
(More here.)
By THOMAS B. EDSALL, NYT
There are a number of conclusions that can be drawn from the 2012 presidential contest without trying to predict the winner. As the polls are about to open, let's look at some of these developments, which fall into four broad categories that will shape the future of politics.
Demographic Trends: The first major development (or non-development) revealed by this year's campaign is that the pro-Democratic demographic tidal wave threatening to swamp the Republican Party has not crested. The overwhelmingly white Republican Party remains competitive.
The primary factor keeping Romney within reach of President Obama is his decisive margin among white voters. African-Americans and Hispanics remain solidly Democratic. Blacks back Obama by the same 91 point margin that he had in 2008. Obama's margin of support among Hispanics, 69-21, is substantially larger than his 67-31 margin 4 years ago. (The 2008 data is from exit polls in which by definition there are no undecided voters; the 2012 data still have a bloc of the undecided.)
The demographic threat to the Republican Party grows out of the fact that every four years the electorate becomes roughly two percent less white and two percent more minority, primarily as a result of the increase in the Hispanic and Asian-American populations and the relatively low birth rate among whites. By my computation, this translates into a modest 0.85 percentage point gain for Democrats and 0.85 percentage point loss for Republicans every four years. In other words, the changing composition of the electorate gives Democrats an additional built-in advantage of 1.7 percentage points every four years.
(More here.)
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