In the presidential race, why hasn't Minnesota received more attention?
Oct. 27: Minnesota Moonlights as Swing State, but Ohio and Virginia Are More Crucial
By NATE SILVER, NYT
With the election so close, Saturday is no longer a day of rest for pollsters. Eight polls were released from potentially competitive states:
This is a diverse group of polls that does not really lend itself to a snappy summation. But let's start in Minnesota, a state that we have given little attention this year.
There were two polls out in Minnesota on Saturday. One, from St. Cloud State University, gave President Obama an eight-point lead. But another, from Mason-Dixon for The Minneapolis Star Tribune, had Mr. Obama with a smaller lead of just three points.
Which of these polls represents the more likely state of play in Minnesota? The FiveThirtyEight forecast projects Mr. Obama to win there by 6.8 percentage points, meaning that it is somewhat closer to the St. Cloud State poll. Other recent polls, conducted after the first presidential debate in Denver, gave given Mr. Obama leads of margins between 5 and 10 points.
(More here.)
By NATE SILVER, NYT
With the election so close, Saturday is no longer a day of rest for pollsters. Eight polls were released from potentially competitive states:
This is a diverse group of polls that does not really lend itself to a snappy summation. But let's start in Minnesota, a state that we have given little attention this year.
There were two polls out in Minnesota on Saturday. One, from St. Cloud State University, gave President Obama an eight-point lead. But another, from Mason-Dixon for The Minneapolis Star Tribune, had Mr. Obama with a smaller lead of just three points.
Which of these polls represents the more likely state of play in Minnesota? The FiveThirtyEight forecast projects Mr. Obama to win there by 6.8 percentage points, meaning that it is somewhat closer to the St. Cloud State poll. Other recent polls, conducted after the first presidential debate in Denver, gave given Mr. Obama leads of margins between 5 and 10 points.
(More here.)
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2 Comments:
Is this for real??? minnesota is a solidly Democrat state when it comes to state-wide elections. Sure, once in a while, you have a Norm Coleman or Rod Grams, but these are rare exceptions. Minnesota will go 65% for Obama - there is no story here when it comes to presidential politics.
And, 72% will vote for Klobuchar and both houses of the legislature will be controlled by the Democrats in 2013 after this year's election.
Guaranteed.
Romney should spend money in Minnesota ... the backdrop is prefect as this is not 2008.
Motivation and voter apathy are different.
In 2008, there was a highly competitive Senate race with Norm Coleman underperforming John McCain by more than 60,000 votes ... if not for Dean Barkley, Minnesota would still have a Republican Senator.
In 2012, there is not a competitive Senate race and all the DFL held Congressional seats are firm ... with only the motivation for Republicans to try to hold Bachmann, Cravaack and Kline districts.
Now add in the Marriage Amendment ... which will drag Republican voters to the polls.
The 2010 legislature was decided by apathy ... look at the number of seats that changed party ... the MN-GOP got the same number of votes in 2008 as in 2010 but the DFL candidates fell off. The same thing could happen in 2012 if DFL voters do not feel motivated.
There is one other poll that Nate Silver did not mention ... it was not a statewide poll but the results show Obama with a four point lead in MN-02 while Kline leads by 8 points ... throw in some bad weather and the perception that Obama, Klobuchar, Walz, etc will win and voters fail to vote ... a win for Romney.
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