Chances of Republican Senate takeover less than 50-50

GOP’s problems exposed in struggle for Senate

By: David Catanese and Manu Raju, Politico.com
October 18, 2012 04:29 AM EDT

In 2010, when Republicans stumbled on what had been a clear path to winning control of the Senate, GOP operatives comforted themselves with a defiant vow: Just wait ‘til next time.

Now, next time is here — and the GOP is in danger of blowing its shot at a majority for the second cycle in a row.

Republicans fell short of power in 2010 largely because three out-of-the-mainstream candidates — in Nevada, Delaware and Colorado — lost states that clearly were winnable if more electable politicians had been on the ballot.

(See also: POLITICO's swing-state map)

In 2012, the early exuberance about GOP prospects was based largely on simple math: Democrats were defending 23 seats, some of which looked clearly vulnerable, while Republicans were only defending 10 seats.

(More here.)