As goes Florida, so goes the nation?

Sept. 11: Florida a True Must-Win for Romney

By NATE SILVER, NYT

Florida has a well-established reputation as a swing state. But as the election season has worn on, it has come to look even more important. Florida now ranks a clear second on our list of tipping point states, those most likely to provide the decisive votes in the Electoral College, behind only Ohio.

Florida is typically just slightly Republican-leaning, and the tipping point calculation is sensitive to even the smallest deviations from the national averages. As I've argued before, for instance, North Carolina isn't that essential to the electoral math, even though the race there is quite close, because other states that would help get a candidate to 270 electoral votes precede it in the pecking order.

But as the election has evolved, Mr. Obama's polling has held up fairly well in Florida, including another decent poll there on Tuesday, which put him four points ahead.

Just as important, Mr. Obama's polling has been choppy lately in a several other states, particularly Virginia (where he got a very poor poll on Monday), Colorado and Iowa, which had initially appeared to be easier wins for him. It is more conceivable now that Mr. Obama could have an easier time winning Florida than those other states, increasing its importance.

(More here.)