Trend toward the president ... but don't count on it
National Journal
Updated: September 25, 2012 | 4:52 p.m.
The presidential race remains remarkably stable, which is good news for President Obama and Democrats and bad news for Mitt Romney and Republicans. This race is certainly not over; with three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate to go and two upcoming unemployment reports — and all against a backdrop of a very unstable world — it’s not hard to conjure up scenarios that could change the trajectory of this election. But a change of the trajectory is exactly what would have to happen for Romney to win; his current one simply doesn’t intersect with Obama’s before Nov. 6.
Leading Democratic and Republican pollsters and strategists privately say that the Obama lead is around 4 or 5 points and is neither widening nor narrowing. The convention bounces have dissipated, but Romney’s negatives remain quite high and are not diminishing. In the Gallup three-week super-samples—almost 10,000 interviews—the percentage of Democrats saying that they will definitely vote has moved up to the point that it is now virtually tied with Republicans.
North Carolina and New Hampshire are the two closest of the 11 battleground states, and both are about even. In the Tar Heel state there are unpublished numbers ranging from Romney ahead by 2 points to Obama by 3 points. Just call it a draw right now, though most bets are on the state falling into the Romney column.
Pollsters vary on exactly where Virginia is; some are saying Obama is up by just a point or so, others say by as many as four. The margins that campaign pollsters are getting are tighter than some of the public polling is showing.
(More here.)
Updated: September 25, 2012 | 4:52 p.m.
The presidential race remains remarkably stable, which is good news for President Obama and Democrats and bad news for Mitt Romney and Republicans. This race is certainly not over; with three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate to go and two upcoming unemployment reports — and all against a backdrop of a very unstable world — it’s not hard to conjure up scenarios that could change the trajectory of this election. But a change of the trajectory is exactly what would have to happen for Romney to win; his current one simply doesn’t intersect with Obama’s before Nov. 6.
Leading Democratic and Republican pollsters and strategists privately say that the Obama lead is around 4 or 5 points and is neither widening nor narrowing. The convention bounces have dissipated, but Romney’s negatives remain quite high and are not diminishing. In the Gallup three-week super-samples—almost 10,000 interviews—the percentage of Democrats saying that they will definitely vote has moved up to the point that it is now virtually tied with Republicans.
North Carolina and New Hampshire are the two closest of the 11 battleground states, and both are about even. In the Tar Heel state there are unpublished numbers ranging from Romney ahead by 2 points to Obama by 3 points. Just call it a draw right now, though most bets are on the state falling into the Romney column.
Pollsters vary on exactly where Virginia is; some are saying Obama is up by just a point or so, others say by as many as four. The margins that campaign pollsters are getting are tighter than some of the public polling is showing.
(More here.)
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