GOP veep choice affect on ticket? Meh ...
Ryan Plus One Week: No Bounce
Simon Jackman, HuffPost, Posted: 08/20/2012 8:26 pm
Since presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney announced his choice of Paul Ryan as a vice-presidential running mate, HuffPost Pollster has logged five national polls and 11 state-level polls, all fielded since the news broke. The bottom line? No real change in Obama-Romney vote preference, at least the national level.
Using a tracking model and algorithm I've developed exclusively for Pollster, I estimate that Obama's share of national level voting intentions is virtually unchanged, ticking up from 46.2 percent on Friday, Aug. 10 (the day prior to the Ryan announcement) to 46.3 percent today, a mere 0.1 percentage point increase (see the graph accompanying this post). Romney's numbers are off by the same amount, falling from 45.1 percent on Friday August 10 to 45 percent today.
These results are consistent with the stability in voting intentions that we've seen through Spring and Summer. Voting intentions today are all but indistinguishable from where they have been for months, with Obama maintaining a small lead over Romney. The Obama-Romney margin at the national level, 1.3 percentage points as of today, is right at the edge of conventional levels of statistical significance; the probability that Obama leads Romney in national level voting intentions is about 80 percent.
In the coming weeks and months, I will provide the details on the model and its underlying assumptions in a series of posts in this space. For today, let's start with an initial sketch of how the model works.
(More here.)
Simon Jackman, HuffPost, Posted: 08/20/2012 8:26 pm
Since presumptive Republican nominee Mitt Romney announced his choice of Paul Ryan as a vice-presidential running mate, HuffPost Pollster has logged five national polls and 11 state-level polls, all fielded since the news broke. The bottom line? No real change in Obama-Romney vote preference, at least the national level.
Using a tracking model and algorithm I've developed exclusively for Pollster, I estimate that Obama's share of national level voting intentions is virtually unchanged, ticking up from 46.2 percent on Friday, Aug. 10 (the day prior to the Ryan announcement) to 46.3 percent today, a mere 0.1 percentage point increase (see the graph accompanying this post). Romney's numbers are off by the same amount, falling from 45.1 percent on Friday August 10 to 45 percent today.
These results are consistent with the stability in voting intentions that we've seen through Spring and Summer. Voting intentions today are all but indistinguishable from where they have been for months, with Obama maintaining a small lead over Romney. The Obama-Romney margin at the national level, 1.3 percentage points as of today, is right at the edge of conventional levels of statistical significance; the probability that Obama leads Romney in national level voting intentions is about 80 percent.
In the coming weeks and months, I will provide the details on the model and its underlying assumptions in a series of posts in this space. For today, let's start with an initial sketch of how the model works.
(More here.)
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