Analyzing the New Hampshire vote

‘Do You Trust Politicians?’

By THOMAS B. EDSALL, NYT

West Lebanon, N.H.

Over the home stretch of this election, I'm going to visit a number of swing states to gauge the prospects of the two major party presidential candidates.

Here in New Hampshire - once a securely Republican state - the presidential contest pits Democrats struggling to revive their victorious 2008 coalition against Republicans attempting to reignite the conservative insurgency that swept the state in 2010.

In 2006 and 2008, New Hampshire Democrats were exceptionally enthusiastic about voting for Democrats, according to poll data analyzed by Andrew Smith, a political scientist at the University of New Hampshire.

By the 2010 midterm elections, Democrats had sunk into relative apathy while Republicans couldn't wait to vote. More than three quarters of Republicans, 77 percent, said they were "excited" about the 2010 election, and just 10 percent said they were "depressed." Only 36 percent of Democrats were "excited" while 43 percent were "depressed."

(More here.)