Naming of running mate always gives a boost
By NATE SILVER, NYT
At the political futures market Intrade, shares in Mitt Romney have been a hot commodity this week. As of early Thursday evening, the bettors there gave Mr. Romney a 43.5 percent chance of winning November's election. That's up from about 39 percent late last week, before Mr. Romney's announcement that Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin would be his running mate.
Our forecast model has usually been more bearish on Mr. Romney's chances than Intrade - but it also shows him gaining ground over the past several days. It now gives him a 31.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 26.7 percent late last week.
So what's my gripe with Intrade?
The issue is simply this: in past elections, candidates have typically gotten a "bounce" in the polls after naming their running mates. When I use the term bounce, what I mean is that they get a temporary boost to their numbers which then fades. But while the bounce is under way, the polls will overrate their standing somewhat.
The forecast model is not making any sort of adjustment for the effect that naming a running mate could have on the polls. Neither, apparently, are the bettors at Intrade. But that may be a mistake.
(More here.)
At the political futures market Intrade, shares in Mitt Romney have been a hot commodity this week. As of early Thursday evening, the bettors there gave Mr. Romney a 43.5 percent chance of winning November's election. That's up from about 39 percent late last week, before Mr. Romney's announcement that Representative Paul D. Ryan of Wisconsin would be his running mate.
Our forecast model has usually been more bearish on Mr. Romney's chances than Intrade - but it also shows him gaining ground over the past several days. It now gives him a 31.3 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, up from 26.7 percent late last week.
So what's my gripe with Intrade?
The issue is simply this: in past elections, candidates have typically gotten a "bounce" in the polls after naming their running mates. When I use the term bounce, what I mean is that they get a temporary boost to their numbers which then fades. But while the bounce is under way, the polls will overrate their standing somewhat.
The forecast model is not making any sort of adjustment for the effect that naming a running mate could have on the polls. Neither, apparently, are the bettors at Intrade. But that may be a mistake.
(More here.)
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