Studies say decreased turnout favors GOP
By NATE SILVER, NYTAlmost every day, I get e-mails and Twitter messages asking me about the effect of voter identification laws on turnout. Most of these messages, I presume, are from Democrats. They worry that more onerous laws, like those in Pennsylvania, could make it more difficult for Democratic-leaning voting groups like African-Americans and young voters to participate in this November’s election.
These concerns are perfectly logical — although it is also possible to exaggerate the effects that these laws might have. Academic studies suggest that they very probably reduce turnout, but not by more than a couple of percentage points. And although Democratic voters may be more affected by the laws, some Republican voters will be disenfranchised by them, too.
As I mentioned, there are quite a number of academic studies that seek to evaluate the effect of identification laws on voter turnout; John Sides has compiled a list of them here; or you can do some searching for yourself on Google Scholar.
(Continued here.)
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2 Comments:
Liberals would have more credibility on this issue if they would at least make mention of illegal voting, starting with felons for Franken.
There is no way to prove this or disprove that decreased turnout favors anyone. You never know who is going to show up to vote on election day at any given time regardless of Voter ID laws. There are more people who are registered to vote that do not than those who don't vote at all.
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