Analyzing the polls: Surprise! They're not all the same
Mark Blumenthal, HuffPost
Updated: 06/18/2012 9:14 am
WASHINGTON -- With the race for president between Mitt Romney and Barack Obama now shifting into high gear, politicians, journalists and the general public are scrutinizing each new poll, with every small swing in one direction or another elevated to outsized importance.
Among the many polls released every day, one always stands out. The Gallup Poll is arguably the most trusted survey brand in the world, a name virtually synonymous with public opinion polling. It has measured presidential job approval and vote preference without interruption since the 1940s and now conducts a daily tracking poll that reaches more than 3,600 adults every week -- a volume of data that dwarfs that produced by other firms. As a result, Gallup's numbers enjoy unique influence and public prominence.
Over the past few years, however, polling junkies have noticed something curious: Gallup's polls have produced results that appear slightly but consistently more negative to President Obama than those produced by other firms.
The Huffington Post has conducted an independent analysis that confirms the phenomenon and points to a likely explanation. The problem lies in the way that Gallup handles the racial composition of its samples, and the findings highlight significant issues with how polls are developed and conducted today.
(More here.)
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2 Comments:
So sad that disagreement with the president has to be seen through a racial lens. A black man has ascended to the presidency, is that racism, too. His policies are a failure, that has nothing to do with his skin color. People see him accumulate power to himself disregarding the bedrock principles of things like 'separation of powers'. he attacks the Supreme Court because of their rulings. He attacks the Congress because he doesn't like the manner in which or the pace at which they move (when he says "I will act where congress will not"). People see him continually blaming others and relying on the arguement of what he inherited and think 'this guy just isn't up to the task'. While he may be blameless, the responsibility is still his. We only have one president and it is up to him to bear the responsibility even if he doesn't want to assume the blame.
I disagree with Benito Mussolini and Adolph Hitler and Joseph Stalin and Mao Zedong and Fedel Castro and Pol Pot for the same reasons I disagree with Obama. Race has so little to do with it. It has everything to do with the fact that Obama's policies have always been a failure, always will be a failure and he's either too stubborn or deluded to learn from what works and what doesn't. He is so convinced of his own divinity that he truly believes that if he merely waves his hand, all the ills will disappear. This is a man detached from reality and man who is a legend in his own mind, wholly unfit for the office and it's all his own fault.
"A fanatic is someone who won't change his mind and won't change the subject".
Obama's fanaticism, his narcissism, his self-divinity, is his own undoing. And he will lose in November not because he's black, but because he's a failure.
Why are liberals obsessed with dividing folks based on race? Many of my friends are conservative (no surprise there I suppose), and race is simply not an issue or a topic of conversation. It will be a great day in America when liberals no longer divide citizens based on race.
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