Romney’s Massachusetts Woes
A Bad Omen?
By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE, NYT
A new poll in Massachusetts has confirmed what everyone knows — that Mitt Romney will very likely lose Massachusetts in November to President Obama. The Suffolk University/7 News poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday, shows Mr. Obama ahead by 25 percentage points among likely voters, with Mr. Romney winning only 34 percent of support in the state where he was once governor.
The interesting point is how this fits into history. It turns out to be rare for a candidate who loses his home state to go on and win the presidency. (Some may quibble with the definition of “home state,” but it generally refers to the state where the candidate lives, not where he was born.)
There are exceptions. James Polk, who was governor of Tennessee, did manage to win the presidency in 1844 despite losing Tennessee. Woodrow Wilson, who was president of Princeton and governor of New Jersey, lost the state when he won the presidency in 1916. Richard M. Nixon happened to be living in New York for a few years when he won the presidency in 1968, though he lost the state.
Mr. Romney went to graduate school in Massachusetts, has lived there for years, ran unsuccessfully for the Senate from there and served as governor from 2003 to 2007. His campaign headquarters is based there. But he appears to have almost no chance of winning the state now. This is not to say that he will also lose the presidency, only that the historical odds are against him.
(More here.)
By KATHARINE Q. SEELYE, NYT
A new poll in Massachusetts has confirmed what everyone knows — that Mitt Romney will very likely lose Massachusetts in November to President Obama. The Suffolk University/7 News poll conducted Sunday through Tuesday, shows Mr. Obama ahead by 25 percentage points among likely voters, with Mr. Romney winning only 34 percent of support in the state where he was once governor.
The interesting point is how this fits into history. It turns out to be rare for a candidate who loses his home state to go on and win the presidency. (Some may quibble with the definition of “home state,” but it generally refers to the state where the candidate lives, not where he was born.)
There are exceptions. James Polk, who was governor of Tennessee, did manage to win the presidency in 1844 despite losing Tennessee. Woodrow Wilson, who was president of Princeton and governor of New Jersey, lost the state when he won the presidency in 1916. Richard M. Nixon happened to be living in New York for a few years when he won the presidency in 1968, though he lost the state.
Mr. Romney went to graduate school in Massachusetts, has lived there for years, ran unsuccessfully for the Senate from there and served as governor from 2003 to 2007. His campaign headquarters is based there. But he appears to have almost no chance of winning the state now. This is not to say that he will also lose the presidency, only that the historical odds are against him.
(More here.)
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