McManus: The nuclear countdown in Iran

For more than two years, experts have been saying that the Islamic Republic is about 18 months from being able to build a bomb.

Doyle McManus
LA Times
April 1, 2012

Not long ago, an astute reader noted that it has been nearly two years since I wrote in a column that "most experts now estimate that Iran needs about 18 months to complete a nuclear device and a missile to carry it."

His point — that those estimates were way off — was a good one, especially since experts are still estimating that Iran is 18 months away from being able to build a nuclear weapon.

So what gives? Why does Iran always seem to be about 18 months away from a nuclear bomb, at least in the eyes of U.S. officials?

For starters, estimates are only estimates. It's hard to get a fix on the state of Iran's research when Tehran refuses to allow full access for international inspectors to its military facilities.

(More here.)