Gingrich Tied With Romney in South Carolina Forecast

By NATE SILVER
NYT

The question I posed on Wednesday — does Newt Gingrich have momentum in South Carolina? — now appears to have an unambiguous answer. Yes, Mr. Gingrich does have momentum — and a lot of it.

Six different South Carolina polls have been released so far today, and they show a split in their results. In two traditional polls with live interviewers, one by Marist for NBC News showed Mitt Romney leading by 10 percentage points, and the other by the Tarrance Group for Politico had him ahead by 7 points.

It should be noted, however, that Marist split its results into samples conducted before and after Monday night’s debate, and found that Mr. Romney’s lead was smaller — 5 points — in the post-debate sample. And a third traditional poll, from American Research Group, gives Mr. Gingrich a nominal 1-point advantage.

Meanwhile, three automated polls — by Rasmussen Reports, Public Policy Polling and InsiderAdvantage — have Mr. Gingrich in the lead instead, by margins ranging from 2 points to 6 points. All of the interviews for these polls were conducted on Wednesday, after the debate and the qualified endorsement Mr. Gingrich received from Sarah Palin.

(More here.)