Paul Moves Into Lead in Iowa Forecast

By NATE SILVER
NYT

Our Iowa forecasts, which are designed to be quite aggressive, have had a big reaction to the new Public Policy Polling survey published late Sunday evening. The poll showed Newt Gingrich’s support slipping badly in Iowa and Ron Paul moving into the lead.

The poll has Mr. Gingrich with 14 percent of the vote, down from 22 percent in the same poll one week earlier and continuing a streak of declining numbers for Mr. Gingrich in state and national surveys. Mitt Romney’s support improved to 20 percent from 16 percent in the previous Public Policy Polling survey. But it was Mr. Paul, at 23 percent in the poll, who held the lead. Mr. Paul thus becomes the sixth candidate to have led an Iowa caucus poll at some point this cycle, joining Mr. Romney, Mr. Gingrich, Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry and Herman Cain.

Mr. Paul also leads our forecast. The model gives him a 44 percent chance of winning Iowa based on the current standing of the candidates and the historic uncertainty of polling-based forecasts. Mr. Romney has a 32 percent chance of winning, while Mr. Gingrich’s chances have crashed to 15 percent.

There remains a chance that Mrs. Bachmann, Mr. Perry or Rick Santorum could become a factor in Iowa. Mr. Paul and Mr. Romney are in a somewhat favorable position for now with support split about evenly between these three candidates. But there is still time for any of them to finish at 20 percent or higher with a late surge. The three — especially Mr. Santorum and Mrs. Bachmann — have reasonably strong favorability ratings, so voters could rally behind one of them if they appear to have late momentum.

(More here.)