How Can Romney Lose?

By NATE SILVER
NYT

The conventional wisdom on the Republican nomination race has once again shifted. In the span of just two weeks, Mitt Romney has gone from seeming quite vulnerable to the near-inevitable Republican nominee. The odds attributed to Mr. Romney winning the nomination at the betting market Intrade, which closed at a low of 42 percent on Dec. 13, had shot up to 72 percent as of Monday night.

I don’t know that Mr. Romney’s stock is mispriced — if anything, it might be a little cheap. It’s not that Mr. Romney is all that strong a candidate. But for him to fail to win the nomination, someone else has to, and it’s hard to see who that is.

Newt Gingrich has been moving backward in the polls and would have a lot of hurdles to overcome even if he rebounded. Ron Paul’s numbers have been moving upward, but he’s arguably more helpful than harmful to Mr. Romney and has little chance to win the nomination once the field is winnowed down.

Jon M. Huntsman Jr. has more upside than some of the other Republican candidates, and his polling has improved in New Hampshire. But he’d look a lot more dangerous if he were polling at 21 percent there rather than 12 percent.

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