How to win in Afghanistan
By Ronald E. Neumann,
WashPost
Published: November 29
The latest U.S.-Pakistan confrontation on the Afghanistan border underscores what could become a recurring problem if we do not learn how to manage the tension between working with Pakistan and taking stronger action against insurgent sanctuaries in that country. The U.S. effort in Afghanistan is making progress, but on the current timeline it is likely to fail if sanctuaries remain inviolable.
On my most recent trip to Afghanistan I found improvement. The Afghan army is growing and will be better by 2014. Insurgent expansion into the north has been contained. District and provincial government positions are being filled. Despite periodic high-profile attacks, the Taliban was unable to disrupt a recent three-day gathering of more than 2,000 Afghan notables in Kabul. If time and money were unlimited, this progress would be reassuring. But they are not.
The United States relied on building Afghan forces to handle remaining violence but the buildup began only in 2009. The Obama administration now has withdrawal written all over it; aid is declining and troops are leaving. We don’t even know how many troops President Obama will leave in 2013.
As time runs out, do we soldier on with little chance of success? Or do we pull out, watch a civil war destabilize South and Central Asia, and ignore the neighborhood’s further radicalization as Pakistan seeks to dominate Afghanistan? Al-Qaeda may well return, along with the Taliban.Evidence of tight links between the two is increasing. Someone with access to material from Osama bin Laden’s computers told me that even he was surprised at how tightly they were coordinating. The options — muddling along or quitting — are unpalatable.
(More here.)
WashPost
Published: November 29
The latest U.S.-Pakistan confrontation on the Afghanistan border underscores what could become a recurring problem if we do not learn how to manage the tension between working with Pakistan and taking stronger action against insurgent sanctuaries in that country. The U.S. effort in Afghanistan is making progress, but on the current timeline it is likely to fail if sanctuaries remain inviolable.
On my most recent trip to Afghanistan I found improvement. The Afghan army is growing and will be better by 2014. Insurgent expansion into the north has been contained. District and provincial government positions are being filled. Despite periodic high-profile attacks, the Taliban was unable to disrupt a recent three-day gathering of more than 2,000 Afghan notables in Kabul. If time and money were unlimited, this progress would be reassuring. But they are not.
The United States relied on building Afghan forces to handle remaining violence but the buildup began only in 2009. The Obama administration now has withdrawal written all over it; aid is declining and troops are leaving. We don’t even know how many troops President Obama will leave in 2013.
As time runs out, do we soldier on with little chance of success? Or do we pull out, watch a civil war destabilize South and Central Asia, and ignore the neighborhood’s further radicalization as Pakistan seeks to dominate Afghanistan? Al-Qaeda may well return, along with the Taliban.Evidence of tight links between the two is increasing. Someone with access to material from Osama bin Laden’s computers told me that even he was surprised at how tightly they were coordinating. The options — muddling along or quitting — are unpalatable.
(More here.)
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