Hating Incumbency and Incumbents Too
By JENNIFER STEINHAUER
NYT
WASHINGTON — One of the immutable laws of American politics has been that while voters typically loathe Congress, they tend to tolerate their own lawmaker. Now, with ratings for that institution in the root cellar and approval of individual lawmakers heading there, members of Congress and analysts are beginning to wonder if that law could be repealed next year.
According to a New York Times/CBS News poll in September, only 33 percent of registered voters believe their own member deserves to be re-elected, and a mere 6 percent said the same about most members of Congress, both the lowest figures since The Times started asking this question in the early 1990s.
Along with the dismal poll ratings, two special elections in New York this year have vividly illustrated what an angry electorate is capable of. In one, a Democrat captured a Republican stronghold; in the other, a Tea Party-leaning Republican won in a traditionally Democratic district.
As those results suggest, most operatives and analysts do not expect the 2012 election to be the kind of mainly partisan wave that flipped control of the House in 2006 and again last year. Instead, they believe that Republicans are more likely than not to hold their majority in the House and mount a strong challenge for control of the Senate, where Democrats now hold a narrow majority. Along the way, many incumbents — from both parties — could face difficult campaigns.
(More here.)
NYT
WASHINGTON — One of the immutable laws of American politics has been that while voters typically loathe Congress, they tend to tolerate their own lawmaker. Now, with ratings for that institution in the root cellar and approval of individual lawmakers heading there, members of Congress and analysts are beginning to wonder if that law could be repealed next year.
According to a New York Times/CBS News poll in September, only 33 percent of registered voters believe their own member deserves to be re-elected, and a mere 6 percent said the same about most members of Congress, both the lowest figures since The Times started asking this question in the early 1990s.
Along with the dismal poll ratings, two special elections in New York this year have vividly illustrated what an angry electorate is capable of. In one, a Democrat captured a Republican stronghold; in the other, a Tea Party-leaning Republican won in a traditionally Democratic district.
As those results suggest, most operatives and analysts do not expect the 2012 election to be the kind of mainly partisan wave that flipped control of the House in 2006 and again last year. Instead, they believe that Republicans are more likely than not to hold their majority in the House and mount a strong challenge for control of the Senate, where Democrats now hold a narrow majority. Along the way, many incumbents — from both parties — could face difficult campaigns.
(More here.)
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